923
FXUS63 KAPX 221749
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH RAIN MIXING IN SPREADS ACROSS MICHIGAN TODAY.
-MILD WEATHER BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.
-WATCHING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SUBSEQUENT WARMER AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE,
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL EXTEND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA DELIVERING LIGHT STRATIFORM
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROGRESS EAST TO WEST THIS MORNING
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWOODS.
LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS H8 TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST BELOW
FREEZING TODAY, RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT STRATIFORM 10:1 RATIO
SNOWFALL. WHILE EASTERN UPPER REMAINS MOSTLY DRY, ONLY MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY WITH FEW TENTHS OF
QPF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS RANGING BETWEEN A TRACE TO
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AREAS AROUND AN INCH
OF SLICK OR "GREASY" SNOW.
TONIGHT... ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT AS THE DIURNAL TEMP SWING REMAINS LESS THAN 10 DEGREES.
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING TO
CONTINUE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SOME MODELS SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
AROUND THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME, BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A STRONG
ENOUGH WARM NOSE TO COMPLETELY MELT SNOWFALL. A GENERAL TRACE TO FEW
ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAINLY AS SNOWFALL BESIDES MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN NEAR
SAGINAW BAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PLACING ITS AXIS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT MILD/QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
PARTS OF THE CWA. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF RAIN RETURNS THIS
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY
EXTENDS PRECIP DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AGAIN, THE
MAJORITY OF AREAS REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO QPF ALONG EASTERN UPPER REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
EXTENDS A BOUNDARY DRIVEN VIA WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZATION, BUT A LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH. CURRENT ENSEMBLES/BLENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF
PROBS BELOW A QUARTER INCH OF MAINLY RAINFALL, BUT MODELS STILL HAVE
A DECENT SPREAD ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ACTUALLY DRAWN
FROM THE PACIFIC. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SET UP AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AROUND THE BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUTLOOK...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY
STALLED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THIS WEEKEND WHILE
DEEPENING. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
LEVEL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ITS CENTER THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS, BUT
HIGHEST PROBS OF DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TREND
UPWARD WITH ACCUMULATING BACKSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PLACING ITS AXIS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT MILD/QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
PARTS OF THE CWA. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF RAIN RETURNS THIS
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY
EXTENDS PRECIP DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AGAIN, THE
MAJORITY OF AREAS REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO QPF ALONG EASTERN UPPER REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
EXTENDS A BOUNDARY DRIVEN VIA WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZATION, BUT A LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH. CURRENT ENSEMBLES/BLENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF
PROBS BELOW A QUARTER INCH OF MAINLY RAINFALL, BUT MODELS STILL HAVE
A DECENT SPREAD ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ACTUALLY DRAWN
FROM THE PACIFIC. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SET UP AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AROUND THE BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUTLOOK...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY
STALLED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THIS WEEKEND WHILE
DEEPENING. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE
LEVEL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ITS CENTER THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS, BUT
HIGHEST PROBS OF DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TREND
UPWARD WITH ACCUMULATING BACKSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN/RA MOVING OVER
THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY SW, BUT REMAIN AOB 10KTS FOR MOST
SITES WHICH HAS BEEN LEADING TO SOME VRB DIRECTION AT TIMES.
TOOK G15-20KTS OUT OF THE TAF FOR KPLN/KTVC HOWEVER THERE COULD
BE AN OBSERVATION OR TWO THAT DOES SEE THE GUSTS. PRECIP IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH KPLN/KAPN/KCIU, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND WILL
PUSH IN NEAR 00Z. BY THIS TIME, -SN WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOST
SITES (BESIDES KMBL/KTVC). PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO TIMES OF FZDZ AFTER 04Z. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING FZDZ
(KPLN/KAPN/KTVC). SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR COASTAL ADJACENT
TERMINALS, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY A DEGREE TO TWO
TOO WARM (RESULTING IN -RA). CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN BR/FG
IMPACTS FROM 10Z THRU 16Z FOR KMBL/KTVC/KAPN. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TREND VFR.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ344>346.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...ELD
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