331
FXUS63 KAPX 222019
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
319 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MESSY WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
- ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
BROAD WARM ADVECTION IS IN PLACE, TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NEARING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXITS EAST TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP IN
NORTHERN MI AT MID-AFTERNOON, AFTER EARLIER SNOW AND RAIN. THERE
LIKELY IS SOME PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, WE AWAIT BETTER FORCING FOR BETTER PRECIP, AND WE MIGHT
BE WAITING AWHILE.
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TONIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BROADLY ACROSS
LOWER MI. MODELED QPF HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER LATE TODAY/TONIGHT,
AND RECENT HI-REZ HRRR/RAP RUNS DON'T DO MUCH HERE UNTIL VERY LATE.
WE HAVE CIGS LOW ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT IN THE
SOUTH, WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS EFFECTIVELY.
LIGHT AND SPOTTY SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE THRU
TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS MORE LIKELY
NORTH, WITH LIQUID PRECIP SOUTH. OUTSIDE OF FZDZ, THIS WILL NOT BE
HIGH-IMPACT.
850MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ZERO IN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER MI
TUE MORNING, ON WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THOSE WINDS VEER NW IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT, AND COOLER TEMPS WILL START TO SPILL
BACK IN. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP, HIGHER IN
CHIPPEWA CO, WITH SNOW/DRIZZLE AGAIN BOTH POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF M-32,
SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, A LITTLE COOLER AT THE SAULT.
HIGHS TUESDAY MID 30S TO NEAR 40F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
ONCE TUESDAY'S WAVE DEPARTS, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US AND S CENTRAL CANADA. WE CONTINUE TO SEE NW FLOW ALOFT, UNTIL THE
UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND FOLDS OVER US AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR MORE SHORTWAVES TO OVERRIDE THE AREA IN
WHAT IS BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, HEADING THRU NEXT
WEEKEND, THE NORTHERN STREAM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO AMPLIFY.
A BRIEF LULL IN MOST OF OUR WX MID-WEEK. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER IN
THE STRAITS AREA/EASTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY, JUST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE WE ARE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER, INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL BE SEEN AT MID LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN LAKES, AND WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, PROVIDING A
COOL/DRY FEED OF AIR ON EASTERLY BREEZES. (AT LEAST LAKE HURON STILL
HAS SOME WARMTH IN IT.) THERE IS A GROWING RISK FOR A MESSY WINTRY
MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, IN NORTHERN MI, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, LESS THAN 0.25" IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI, SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN THE UP. P-TYPE MAY LEAN MORE
TOWARD SNOW IN THE UP, WITH A BROADER MIX IN NORTHERN LOWER MI
(INCLUDING PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES IN WARMER COASTAL AREAS).
ANOTHER LULL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR PART OF FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT ENERGY INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT A RAIN-TO-SNOW EVENT, WITH COLDER AIR/LAKE
EFFECT/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE, IS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE IN THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN/RA MOVING OVER
THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY SW, BUT REMAIN AOB 10KTS FOR MOST
SITES WHICH HAS BEEN LEADING TO SOME VRB DIRECTION AT TIMES.
TOOK G15-20KTS OUT OF THE TAF FOR KPLN/KTVC HOWEVER THERE COULD
BE AN OBSERVATION OR TWO THAT DOES SEE THE GUSTS. PRECIP IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH KPLN/KAPN/KCIU, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND WILL
PUSH IN NEAR 00Z. BY THIS TIME, -SN WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOST
SITES (BESIDES KMBL/KTVC). PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO TIMES OF FZDZ AFTER 04Z. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING FZDZ
(KPLN/KAPN/KTVC). SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR COASTAL ADJACENT
TERMINALS, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY A DEGREE TO TWO
TOO WARM (RESULTING IN -RA). CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN BR/FG
IMPACTS FROM 10Z THRU 16Z FOR KMBL/KTVC/KAPN. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TREND VFR.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ344>346.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page