591
FXUS63 KAPX 230425
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MESSY WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
- ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
BROAD WARM ADVECTION IS IN PLACE, TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NEARING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXITS EAST TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP IN
NORTHERN MI AT MID-AFTERNOON, AFTER EARLIER SNOW AND RAIN. THERE
LIKELY IS SOME PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, WE AWAIT BETTER FORCING FOR BETTER PRECIP, AND WE MIGHT
BE WAITING AWHILE.
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TONIGHT IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BROADLY ACROSS
LOWER MI. MODELED QPF HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER LATE TODAY/TONIGHT,
AND RECENT HI-REZ HRRR/RAP RUNS DON'T DO MUCH HERE UNTIL VERY LATE.
WE HAVE CIGS LOW ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT IN THE
SOUTH, WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS EFFECTIVELY.
LIGHT AND SPOTTY SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE THRU
TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS MORE LIKELY
NORTH, WITH LIQUID PRECIP SOUTH. OUTSIDE OF FZDZ, THIS WILL NOT BE
HIGH-IMPACT.
850MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ZERO IN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER MI
TUE MORNING, ON WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THOSE WINDS VEER NW IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT, AND COOLER TEMPS WILL START TO SPILL
BACK IN. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP, HIGHER IN
CHIPPEWA CO, WITH SNOW/DRIZZLE AGAIN BOTH POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF M-32,
SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, A LITTLE COOLER AT THE SAULT.
HIGHS TUESDAY MID 30S TO NEAR 40F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
ONCE TUESDAY'S WAVE DEPARTS, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US AND S CENTRAL CANADA. WE CONTINUE TO SEE NW FLOW ALOFT, UNTIL THE
UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND FOLDS OVER US AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR MORE SHORTWAVES TO OVERRIDE THE AREA IN
WHAT IS BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, HEADING THRU NEXT
WEEKEND, THE NORTHERN STREAM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO AMPLIFY.
A BRIEF LULL IN MOST OF OUR WX MID-WEEK. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER IN
THE STRAITS AREA/EASTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY, JUST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE WE ARE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER, INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL BE SEEN AT MID LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN LAKES, AND WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, PROVIDING A
COOL/DRY FEED OF AIR ON EASTERLY BREEZES. (AT LEAST LAKE HURON STILL
HAS SOME WARMTH IN IT.) THERE IS A GROWING RISK FOR A MESSY WINTRY
MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, IN NORTHERN MI, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, LESS THAN 0.25" IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI, SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN THE UP. P-TYPE MAY LEAN MORE
TOWARD SNOW IN THE UP, WITH A BROADER MIX IN NORTHERN LOWER MI
(INCLUDING PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES IN WARMER COASTAL AREAS).
ANOTHER LULL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR PART OF FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT ENERGY INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT A RAIN-TO-SNOW EVENT, WITH COLDER AIR/LAKE
EFFECT/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE, IS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE IN THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW WITH SATURATION WELL PAST
-10C THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN, BUT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA, INCLUDING MBL.
DROPS TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO
SCATTER OUT AT MBL AND TVC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT TO MVFR LATER
FOR OTHER LOCATIONS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LHZ345-346-349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...DJC
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