287
FXUS63 KAPX 231118
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES BUILDING.
-CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURN THIS FRIDAY WITH MULTIPLE P-TYPES,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
-ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP AND GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MIDLEVEL RIDGING PATTERN CENTERED OVER
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION-FREE AND OVERALL QUIET
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TIED TO YESTERDAYS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH BITS OF RAIN MIXING IN
THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN PARTS EASTERN UPPER. OTHERWISE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CAUSE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGHING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. ONLY NOTICEABLE WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BE CURRENT SNOWPACK MELTING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH ABOVE FREEZING DEW
POINTS.
TONIGHT...THIS MORNINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUPY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL PGF WINDS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY THE 06Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
COLDER CP AIR MIXING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD LOWS DROP TO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONGOING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS CALM DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TONIGHT) AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS TURN MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AS
MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASING TRENDS OF MIXED PRECIP; INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. LATEST PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN
REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN EXTENDING UP TO NEAR M-32 AND
MOST LIKELY SNOW NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. MOISTURE DYNAMICS OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AS THIS VORTICITY MAXIMA REMAINS CUT
OFF FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCE, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUTLOOK...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FORM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS LIKELY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TRACKS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS RAINFALL TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/MONDAY. TO EARLY TO GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR EVEN TIMING, BUT
STRONG WINDS AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER REMAINS VERY LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS
INTRUDES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT W AND
TURN RATHER GUSTY, WITH SOME 20 TO 25KT+ GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
TREND A LITTLE WEAKER THIS EVENING DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...
SO MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LLWS OUT OF THE NW... BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE THAT TO THIS PACKAGE OF TAFS.
HOLDING LARGELY MVFR WITH TAPERING NW WINDS TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR LHZ345-346-349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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