859
FXUS63 KAPX 231853
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
153 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR
- BRIEF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND LIGHT RAIN
NEAR M-55 LATE WEDNESDAY
- COOLER AIR SETTLES IN THURSDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES THAT
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WARMER AIR NUDGES NORTH, YIELDING AT
LEAST 50% CHANCES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER SEEING A TRACE
OF ICE FRIDAY
- CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND EXISTS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE DRY AIRMASS OVER
NORTHERN WI WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
ISN'T A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY, WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
BE SEEN BY MOST AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WHEREAS TEENS ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS (HIGHER VALLEYS) COULD SEE TEMPS DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL, A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN LOWER AHEAD OF A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAN PLAINS. BRIEF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER LATE WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER AREAS
CLOSER TO M-55.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN DURING THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. A SLUG OF LOW TO MID LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PICKED UP BY A
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADVECTED TOWARDS MI.
THIS WILL PUSH THAT MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE,
GLIDING IT ON TOP OF THE COOLER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. SINCE THE
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE REMOVED FROM THE INITIAL PLUME, AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS MORE OVER SOUTHERN MI, AMPLE
MOISTURE COULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH ON
FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS ALMOST 50% CHANCES FOR PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER SEEING A TRACE OF ICE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER
PROBABILITIES DROP TO 30% OR LOWER FOR CHANCES OF SEEING AT
LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS (M-72
AND SOUTH). SLEET/SNOW AND SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE
SEEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72, WITH CHANCES BEING PRIMARILY SNOW
NORTH OF THE BRIDGE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM, ANOTHER
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS MI SATURDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES (MID 30S) AND POSSIBLY A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REACH THIS FAR NORTH.. WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES
EARLIER POSSIBLY RAIN/SNOW). THE STRONGER UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY AND COULD GENERATE SOME AMPLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE. MORE ON THAT IN THE COMING
FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM VFR AT MBL/TVC/CIU TO MVFR AT PLN TO IFR AT APN.
THESE VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEFORE PROBABILITIES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS. CHANCES DO EXIST FOR BR/-FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY THESE
LOWER CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY VEER MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ345-346-
349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MJG
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