895
FXUS63 KAPX 232214
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
514 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR
- BRIEF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER LATE WEDNESDAY
- COOLER AIR SETTLES IN THURSDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES THAT NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR NUDGES NORTH, YIELDING AT LEAST 50% CHANCES FOR
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER SEEING A TRACE OF ICE FRIDAY
- CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND EXISTS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE DRY AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN WI
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ISN'T A WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY, WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE SEEN BY
MOST AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WHEREAS TEENS ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOWER. SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS (HIGHER VALLEYS) COULD SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-
ZONAL, A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF NORTHERN LOWER AHEAD OF A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CAN PLAINS. BRIEF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER LATE WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS SOME NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER AREAS CLOSER TO M-55.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN DURING THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. A SLUG OF LOW TO MID LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PICKED UP BY A
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADVECTED TOWARDS MI.
THIS WILL PUSH THAT MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE,
GLIDING IT ON TOP OF THE COOLER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. SINCE THE
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE REMOVED FROM THE INITIAL PLUME, AND THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW IS MORE OVER SOUTHERN MI, AMPLE MOISTURE COULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH ON FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS ALMOST 50% CHANCES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
SEEING A TRACE OF ICE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES DROP TO 25%
OR LOWER FOR CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS (M-72 AND SOUTH). SLEET/SNOW AND SOME
FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE SEEN FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72, WITH
CHANCES BEING PRIMARILY SNOW NORTH OF THE BRIDGE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM, ANOTHER
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS MI SATURDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES (MID 30S) AND POSSIBLY A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REACH THIS FAR NORTH.. WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES
EARLIER POSSIBLY RAIN/SNOW). THE STRONGER UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY AND COULD GENERATE SOME AMPLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE. MORE ON THAT IN THE COMING
FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE ISSUANCE PERIOD. STATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN U.P. AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, LIKELY DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR A STRETCH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT VARIOUS TIMES FOR TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ALL SITES LIKELY BECOMING VFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, TURNING TO SOUTH WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ345-346-
349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...DJC
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