129
FXUS63 KAPX 240707
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES (RELATIVELY) MILD TEMPERATURES AND
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
-LOW LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS FRIDAY, DELIVERING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER TODAY.
-LARGER DEEPENING CYCLONE CONTINUES WIDESPREAD PRECIP, GUSTY
WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CHANCES AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S EXTENDS NORTH TODAY CENTERING ITS AXIS OVER THE PLAINS
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STRADDLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUING MILD TEMPERATURES
(MILD FOR LATE DECEMBER) AND OVERALL QUIET CONDTIONS.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...OVERNIGHT ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SPILL COLD TEMPERATURES FROM
ONTARIO INTO EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BLOCKING
SOLAR RADIATION FROM HITTING THE SURFACE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UNTIL ROUGHLY
THE 18Z HOUR WHEN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BACKS WIND DIRECTION TO THE SW.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...AS WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING CAUSING LIGHT WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS
BUILD TONIGHT AS SUPPORT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO THE MID TEEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHILE NORTHERN LOWER
REMAINS IN THE 20S. ATMOSPHERICALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES NO CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED HEIGHT DISTURBANCE WITH A SMALL VORTICITY
MAXIMA PROGRESSES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING, MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY OF MOSTLY
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN
EXTENDING UP THROUGH M-72 WHILE PROFILES NORTH OF THE BRIDGE REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO REMAIN SNOW. HIGHEST PROBS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" REMAIN
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE
ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AS MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS FRIDAY. SURFACE LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE DEEPENING
AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WHILE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE ON IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ORGANIZES, BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RETURN CLASSIC ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER AS STRATUS HAS
SAGGED SOUTH AS EXPECTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE AT CIU AND EVEN APN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CIGS LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY MORNING -- BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BEFORE
TURNING TO SOUTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-
10 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
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