044
FXUS63 KAPX 241817
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1253 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY, WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF M-72. ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
- A BRIEF WARM UP SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
- ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING STRONG WINDS,
COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO MOST OF
NORTHERN MI FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A ~1034MB SURFACE HIGH OVER ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY. SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY - UP AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGING. SOME HIGHER LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER A MORE ACTIVE AR PATTERN IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS INTIAL SLUG OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT,
HOWEVER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN MI. SOME SOUNDINGS HINT AT BRIEF TIMES OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER A COUPLE SPOTS, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR IMPACTS REMAIN VERY
LOW. EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING, THE 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH
ONTARIO CAN AND TURN WINDS NORTH OVER NORTHERN MI. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST CHRISTMAS DAY. A PERIOD OF
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE SEEN EARLY THURSDAY, HOWEVER
MOISTURE FROM A SECOND ROUND OF HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
LOWER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST RESPECTIVELY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE TIMELINE
A LITTLE, SHOWING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO START FALLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN SUMMARY, MOST OF CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20S (EASTERN UPPER) TO LOW 30S
(NORTHERN LOWER) WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WILL BE FALLING OVER EASTERN UPPER AS THESE TWO SLUGS OF
MOISTURE START TO MEET OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THE MID TO HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG,
WHILE A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE ADVECTING THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARDS MI. GUIDANCE HAS BUILT UP SOME CONFIDENCE ON THE 0C 850MB
LINE BEING RATHER LARGE (NOT A SUPER TIGHT GRADIENT), AND RESIDING
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER. DUE TO THIS, SOUNDINGS HAVE
PLACED THE WARM NOSE TRACE RIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE 0C LINE... WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF AREAS NORTH OF M-72 AND SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE LIKELY
SEEING A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY WHICH WILL AMOUNT TO
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES (MOSTLY SNOW). AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
M-72 COULD FLIRT WITH TIMES OF FREEZING RAIN AS GUIDANCE SHOWS
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR THOSE 1-4 DEGREES C 850MB TEMPS
REACHING HERE. CONFIDENCE IS THERE (AND CONTINUES TO BE) FOR A
DOMINATE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 20S FOR MOST OF FRIDAY FOR THE
WHOLE AREA.
ONE OF THE LARGER AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FRIDAY IS ACCUMULATIONS.
AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE LOOKS INTERMITTENT
AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO NORTHERN
LOWER FINDING ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PACIFIC
AND GULF) AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AND THE DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MN/LK
SUPERIOR. HOWEVER, ANY LITTLE DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACKS OF FEATURES
THAT DRIVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COULD ALTER OUR CHANCES FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THOSE CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW.
PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER:
* AREAS NEAR M-72 AND SOUTH HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
TIMES OF FREEZING RAIN, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
NEAR OR UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
* AREAS NORTH OF M-72 AND SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE WILL SEE MOSTLY
SLEET/WET SNOW FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3"
* AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OF 2
TO 5 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS
ALTHOUGH OUR AREA DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING THE
WORST IMPACTS, ACCUMULATING SLEET AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE CAN STILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADS. THE SNOW WILL
LIKELY HAVE LOWER SLRS AS WELL, LEADING TO A MORE WET SNOW
CHARACTERISTIC WHICH IS ALSO MORE IMPACTFUL. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS LARGE AREAS WITH
TIMES OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS LIKELY.
AS THE FORCING FEATURES (SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE CYCLONE) EXIT TO THE
EAST, UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN OVER MI FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE CAN PLAINS AS A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CAN LEADS TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINING WARMER AIR TOWARDS MI. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE HIGH 30S SATURDAY. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO GAIN A GOOD
SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE, HOWEVER TIMES OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS OVER MI.
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS A SECOND, STRONGER SURFACE LOW
FROM THE PLAINS REACHES MI. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SWITCH TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMES
OF THIS COULD SHIFT AROUND, AS THIS EVEN REMAINS FARTHER OUT IN
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MVFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS PM. EXPECT A FEW MORE HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LOWER TERMINALS, THEN
BECOMING VFR. BATCH OF QUICK MOVING MVFR CIGS PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WELL, THEN A RETURN TO MAINLY MVFR FOR MOST SITES THURSDAY
MORNING. KCIU WILL BE MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD
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