659
FXUS63 KAPX 250831
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
331 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET SPREAD AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTHERN LOWER THIS FRIDAY.
-LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF SNOW BEYOND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...MIDLEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRADDLED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH STRONG FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF QUIET AND OVERALL
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
FRIDAY, BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPS LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH H8 TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THIS CHRISTMAS WITH LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW VEERING SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST BY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL TROUGHING SPREADS EASTWARD TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE TEEN TO LOW 20S FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
STATE. STRATIFORM SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND DELIVER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO EASTERN UPPER, FOLLOWED BY
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS FRIDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS MODERATE FRONTOGENIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO MORE ORGANIZED SNOWFALL AND HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST PROBS OF SNOW BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY REMAIN A
GENERAL 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ONGOING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE U.P WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THIS FRIDAY. LATEST HI-REZ GUIDANCE HAS
PUSH SNOWFALL TOTAL PROBS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WHILE FRONTOGENIC LIFT WILL KEEP A SHARP CUT-
OFF OF SNOW AROUND THE M-32 CORRIDOR STRETCHED DOWN TO TAWAS, ONLY A
GENERAL 1-3' INCHES ES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. LOW END PROBS
OF A "HIGH END" WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
POTENTIAL TOTALS OF 3-6" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 7". AREAS
SOUTH OF M-32 WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INTRODUCING MIXED PRECIP. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP ICE
TOTALS AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS WHILE QPF TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO A TENTH OR
MORE. LOW END POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ICE TOTALS REMAINS POSSIBLE IF
RAINFALL THIS FRIDAY TURNS LIGHT RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE LEADING TO
MORE EFFICIENT GROWTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MIDLEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA DEEPENS AND MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S THIS
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA AROUND THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION, SWITCHING RAIN
TO SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBS OF 2-4" IN THE CLASSIC NW REGION AND EVEN LOW PROBS (20-40%)
OF 6" FOR LOCALIZED AREAS. CONTINUED NW FLOW WILL CARRY SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WITH LESS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND LESSER AMOUNTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MIDLEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUPY
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
P PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHWOODS WITH
PERIODIC HEIGHT DISTURBANCES TO DELIVER SNOWFALL CHANCES AND WITH
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. NO EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL AT THIS POINT, BUT PERIODS OF ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIKELY
AS WE HEAD TO THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WINDS TO N THRU 9Z.
WINDS SUSTAINED 5-15KTS, STRONGEST FOR CIU/PLN (COULD START TAF
PERIOD LIGHT/VRB AT MBL/TVC). SHOULD BE LARGELY QUIET WITH FRONT,
BUT COULD SEE SOME -SN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESP AT TVC. BIT OF LLWS
AROUND 2KFT OF 20-25KTS AT 6Z SHOULD MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT THRU
MORNING WITH GUSTS TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NE
THRU 18Z, E THRU 21Z, THEN TOWARD SE AFTER 0Z. LARGELY MVFR CIGS
THRU 10-12Z IMPROVE TO VFR THRU MIDDAY (IFR BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT
TVC/MBL THRU 12Z THOUGH)...THEN MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
RETURN BY EVENING, THOUGH POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF
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