746
FXUS63 KAPX 260454
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1154 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MESSY MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
RESULTING IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
KICK OFF NEXT WEEK.
- MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
AN ENJOYABLE AND RATHER QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS...COURTESY OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MIXED BAG OF CLOUDS OUT THERE,
WITH SKIES RANGING FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
RUNNING RIGHT ABOUT WERE THEY SHOULD BE TO KICK OFF THE LAST WEEK OF
DECEMBER, WITH CURRENT READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE 30S
ALL ATTENTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST
DIRECTED AT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL JET
CURRENTLY ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WAVE WILL
RACE EAST, CUTTING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. RATHER ROBUST DEEP
LAYER SUPPORT AND ATTENDANT PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE...BOTH WITHIN
A SHARP NORTH/SOUTH LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...SHOULD HELP DRIVE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
EVOLUTION (BOTH TIMING AND AMOUNTS) OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. IMPACTS AND ATTENDANT HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS:
DEFINITELY A CHALLENGING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN BOTH THE
STRUCTURE OF THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE REGIME AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION AND ORGANIZATION. STILL EXPECTING KINDA A
TWO-FOLD PRECIPITATION EVENT, WITH INITIAL WING OF WHAT SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW DEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
THERMAL GRADIENT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE AND BEST THERMAL GRADIENT/ATTENDANT MASS
FIELD ADJUSTMENTS VIA ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST THIS AREA OF SNOW
PRIMARILY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST COLLOCATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
RESIDE...WITH SOME SUPPORT BETTER SNOWS STAY NORTH AND EAST INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. COULD EASILY SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND...HEAVIEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
75 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SET TO
ARRIVE WITH APPROACH OF PRIMARY WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET
SUPPORT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IN EVEN A MORE
COMPLICATED SCENARIO, WITH ELEVATED AND MATURE WARM NOSE PUNCHING
NORTH WITHIN INTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE WHAT SHOULD BE
A SURFACE ROOTED LAYER REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. DEPTH OF THIS WARM
NOSE STEADILY DECREASES THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES, WITH THIS WARM
NOSE FURTHER MODIFIED BY INITIAL EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND FORCED
LIFT THROUGH THE VERTICAL. DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED WARM AIR
ALOFT SUPPORTS A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TO PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
FULL RANGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES BETWEEN THESE AREAS. AND,
TO ONLY FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS, COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING MORE BANDED WITH EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...
SUGGESTING HIGH VARIABILITY IN OVERALL SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING
RAIN AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY WISH CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHER, AND WILL SIMPLY UTILIZE PATTERN RECOGNITION AND GUIDANCE
TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST. UTILIZING THIS METHODOLOGY SUGGESTS
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING
RAIN BECOMES A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES, WITH
TRENDS SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS (MOSTLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS)...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TRAVERSE CITY TO OSCODA. WHILE THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY NEGATE MUCH TREE OR POWERLINE DAMAGE, DEFINITELY EXPECT THOSE
SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROAD SURFACE TO BECOME QUITE ICY. WHILE NOT
ALL AREAS WILL HIT SPECIFIC ADVISORY LEVEL ICE/SLEET/SNOW
THRESHOLDS...GIVEN BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD AND IMPACTS ON THOSE UNTREATED
ROAD SURFACES WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND INHERITED ADVISORY WORDING TO
COVER ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY END FROM
WEST TO EAST HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. INITIAL CONCERN CENTERS
ON RATHER VIGOROUS (AND FURTHER DEEPENING) SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED
TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL WAVES SET TO
ARRIVE AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK IN ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ADDITIONAL SNOW/MIXED
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO OUR NEXT
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD
LATER THIS WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. OVERHEAD AIRMASS WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD ONE, SUGGESTING A
RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE-DRIVEN SNOWS IN POST-LOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DEFINITELY COULD SEE SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS (ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT).
DEFINITELY TURNING COLDER BY MONDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING THROUGH THE
20S.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE
THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TO
IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS WELL. WHILE AGAIN MUCH
TOO EARLY FOR ANY REAL SPECIFICS, IT DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN WINTER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
EXPECT ONGOING SN AT CIU/APN TO GENERALLY HANG ON INTO THE AM;
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS UNDER HEAVIEST BANDS. ELSEWHERE, THINK MBL AND
TVC WILL HAVE PRECIP BY 9-10Z; PLN CLOSER TO 12Z. WORST CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE LIKELY BETWEEN 12-18Z (PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VISBYS)...EXPECTING SN FURTHER N WITH IP TO MIX IN AT PLN/APN
AND IP/FZRA AT TVC...WITH FZRA/RA AT MBL. STILL THINK FLURRIES OR
FZDZ ARE LIKELY THRU REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AFTER MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP EXITS. SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 15Z FROM SE, TAPERING
OFF THRU THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS LIKELY BY 0Z...SWITCHING TO E
AFTER 18Z BUT COULD GO MORE N AT TVC/MBL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
ALOFT, 35-40+KTS AT OR ABOVE 2KFT, WHICH COULD REMAIN AS LLWS THRU
12-15Z...BUT HAVE THIS AS MIXING DOWN AS GUSTS IN TAFS ATTM. THIS,
TOO, WILL DROP OFF AFTER 18Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...FEF
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