150
FXUS63 KAPX 271119
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
619 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND MILD TODAY.
- WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW.
- WINTRY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT TODAY, THOUGH
SUBSTANCE ALOFT AND A NOTABLY DRY MID-LEVEL COLUMN LOCATED IN
LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING, SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION
FREE. LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS DESPITE LACK
OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATE DECEMBER NORMALS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS
THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE. WARM ADVECTION AND
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE MILD
FOR LATE DECEMBER, ESPECAILLY ALOFT, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT
MELTING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS. NEAR THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES
MAY BE MARGINAL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WHICH KEEPS AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/ DRIZZLE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
LENDS SUPPORT TO A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM, THOUGH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
(TRENDS TOWARDS A 980-990 MB LOW). WHILE THE MORE EXTREME
SOLUTIONS APPEAR ON THE AGGRESSIVE END OF THE ENVELOPE, TRENDS
DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-IMPACT SYSTEM. INCREASING
WINDS AND A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FAVORING THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS. SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THOSE
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS (OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 45+ MPH) THAT COULD GREATLY IMPACT TRAVEL... STAY
TUNED! TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL STEADILY BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
WITH READINGS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM, THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP IN
A MORE WINTRY LOOK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED,
OPENING THE DOOR FOR PERIODIC SYSTEMS AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS MORNING. THIS CARRIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON... PERHAPS A FEW SITES GET RIGHT AROUND 3,000FT FOR A
BRIEF TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS TURN A TOUCH GUSTIER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20KTS. CIGS LOWER AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... SURE LOOKS LIKE FIRMLY
MVFR TO LOW END IFR PREVAIL TONIGHT, WITH THE OCCASIONAL SNEEZE
OF BR / FZDZ. LONE EXCEPTION IS CIU, WHICH MAY DEVOLVE INTO
FULL BLOWN FZRA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE, ANY POCKETS OF
PRECIP / DRIZZLE COULD BRIEFLY LEAD TO LIFR IF ANYTHING CAN SET
UP OVER A TAF SITE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.
STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...HAD
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