190
FXUS63 KAPX 050740
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ONGOING SNOWFALL DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY.
-ADDITIONAL SNOW, SLEET, AND MIXED PRECIP TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS TUESDAY.
-WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING PROBS OF STORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...MIDLEVEL LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING PATTERN SPANNED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. CURRENT PRECIPITATION DRIVEN BY AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY,
RESULTING IN A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD BEHIND THE CLIPPER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...ONGOING QUICK HITTING CLIPPER WILL CENTERED OVER SUDBURY
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. STRONGEST VORTICITY WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CWA LEADING TO SNOWFALL RATES DECREASING THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO IS
EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF I-75. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING AS
SHOWN BY A SHALLOW WARM NOSE OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONLY A
GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DEPART THE NORTHWOODS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A BRIEF 4-10HR PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 700MB TROUGHING
CURRENTLY LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH ENOUGH DISHEVELED VORTICITY WILL
RETURN CHANCES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES DURING THE EARLY LONG TERM TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
TUESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THIS TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER, RESULTING IN LIGHT
DISHEVELED STRATIFORM PRECIP TO OCCUPY NORTHERN LOWER. LATEST HI-REZ
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.15" FOR MOST AREAS WHILE EASTERN UPPER WILLY LIKELY ONLY OBSERVE A
TRACE OF LIQUID BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST. HIGHEST PROBS REMAIN MAINLY SNOWFALL, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG
WITH PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. EVEN WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S, POOR WINTRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MIDLEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. H8 TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR 0C WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDTIONS KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIP LOW WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTLOOK...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY
OVER THE CONUS PACIFIC RIM WILL DEEPEN AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEK AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL U.S BY FRIDAY.
EMBEDDED HEIGHT DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP, INCLUDING MULTIPLE P-TYPES. SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS A STALLED BOUNDARY
STRETCHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT MOST IMPACTFUL STORM
POTENTIAL REMAINS ON THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. ENSEMBLES STILL
HAVE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLY, BUT PROBABILITIES OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL/LES REMAINS
LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO MID JANUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVES
FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MI. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
HEAVY/WET SNOW COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS, SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS IN
THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR 10:1. LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FZDZ/DZ WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTER THE SNOW EXITS (MVFR TO IFR). SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AT THE MORE SOUTHERN TAF SITES (MBL/TVC),
OTHERWISE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ345-
346.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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