665
FXUS63 KAPX 060454
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1154 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY, LIKELY RESULTING
IN SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
PERHAPS MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE SHORT DURATION SNOWFALL
EVENT LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS FREEZING DRIZZLE NOW WELL OFF TO
OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION KEEPING CONDITIONS CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWOODS. A BIT OF A MILD ONE OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR HELPING TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF NOAM SPLIT FLOW
REGIME REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS DEFINITELY SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME
COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. FAST
MOVING WAVE SET TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, KICKING OFF
THE FIRST OF THESE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION, TYPE, AND AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS:
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY BOTH A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT AND
PROPAGATION OF BEST FORCING...WITH THE LATTER HAVING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORMER AS WELL. DPROG/DT'S OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITE
IS FOR A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACEMENT OF BEST DYNAMICS HEADING
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION
LIKELY CUTTING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR. LIMITED WARM NOSE ALOFT AND A MARGINAL
NEAR FREEZING SURFACE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES...TO INCLUDE A WINDOW FOR A PERIOD A FREEZING
RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HINTS OF TRANSIENT FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSES
MAY ALSO FORCE COOLING THROUGH THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE, CAUSING
PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO WET SNOW DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE A GLACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN...AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS SOUTH OF M-72. EXPECTING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE IF FGEN
RESPONSE IS MORE VIGOROUS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. FULLY EXPECT
FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST AS THERMAL TRENDS AND AREAS OF
ENHANCED FORCING BECOME MORE IN FOCUS (UNFORTUNATELY, THOSE MAY NOT
BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL EVENT IS UNDERWAY). DEFINITELY A MILD ONE
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF A
NORTHERN DISPLACED NORTHERN STREAM JET. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT FLOW REGIME REMAINS ACTIVE, POTENTIALLY SENDING A RATHER
MOISTURE RICH SYSTEM(S) INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS:
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD TUESDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. BIG STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S WEDNESDAY FURTHER WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY...WHEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT
THE LOWER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITE THAT INITIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY, CUTTING UP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A PRETTY DECENT CONNECTION TO GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO UTILIZE. PRE-SYSTEM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH
CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DECENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER GIVEN THAT GULF
TAP.
COULD SEE YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL. AGAIN, PROBABLY LOOKING FOR AT LEAST
SOME CONNECTION OF GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE, RAISING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYTEM CLOSELY, WITH ANY INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PERHAPS SUPPLYING A SOURCE TO COLDER AIR AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF POST-SYSTEM LAKE SNOWS A WELL AS
TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO COOL TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS TO END THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. DEFINITELY PLENTY TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS THRU THE FORECAST. SOME SPOTS WILL BE LOW-
END MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL WILL BE IFR/LIFR FOR
TUESDAY. A PASSING SYSTEM VERY LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING WILL
BRING -RA/-FZRA TO MBL/TVC. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ025>036-
041-042.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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