290
FXUS63 KAPX 060815
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72 AND ESPECAILLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF M-55 WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE SPLIT FLOW STAYS DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTH. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT ALSO INTRODUCES INCREASINGLY TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONCERNS. A FAST- MOVING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
SWEEP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY, BRINGING THE FIRST MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY CENTERS ON A
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF BEST
FORCING. MOST CAM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS, WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE MOST ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF M- 72, WITH THE
GREATEST FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR. A SHALLOW
WARM NOSE ALOFT COMBINED WITH NEAR-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTS A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING A WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING. BRIEF ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS MAY LOCALLY
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO WET SNOW AT TIMES, THOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS POINT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH A LIGHT GLAZE UP
TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF M-72, ESPECAILLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MILD FOR EARLY JANUARY,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
A RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDING PERIOD AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED TO OUR NORTH
BENEATH A DISPLACED NORTHERN JET. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
REMAIN IN THE 30S, WARMING FURTHER THURSDAY WHEN PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MAY REACH THE LOW 40S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A
MOISTURE RICH SYSTEM NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, TRACKING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH MILD PRE-SYSTEM AIRMASS AND A LIKELY
CONNECTION TO GULF MOISTURE, CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR PRIMARILY RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING GIVEN
ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND, WHEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES, POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN ENERGY. THIS COULD INTRODUCE COLDER
AIR AND RAISE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONCERNS AGAIN, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS GIVEN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS,
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A
CHANCE FOR POST SYSTEM LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS THRU THE FORECAST. SOME SPOTS WILL BE LOW-
END MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL WILL BE IFR/LIFR FOR
TUESDAY. A PASSING SYSTEM VERY LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING WILL
BRING -RA/-FZRA TO MBL/TVC. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ025>036-041-042.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ
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