120
FXUS63 KAPX 062328
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- PERHAPS A RETURN TO MORE WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND?
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
CONUS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF ANY REAL COLD AIR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
A MUCH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIRMASS DOMINATES THE WEATHER.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVIDENT, WITH COLD AIR
BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM NOW WELL REMOVED TO OUR NORTH. WEAK IMPULSE
CUTTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN OVERHEAD ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, KICKING OFF A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. WARM NOSE ALOFT AND A GRADUALLY WARMING
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THIS NOW FALLING A
JUST LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DEFINITELY A MILD DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS, WITH CURRENT READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENT SOUTHERN LAKES WAVE EXITS STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS
SECONDARY AND STEADILY WEAKENING DISTURBANCE CUTS INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DETAILS:
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THAT LOWER LAKES LOW WILL END THIS EVENING.
STEADILY DAMPENING WESTERN LAKES WAVE ARRIVES QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS,
SPREADING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
INTO OUR AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT, ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD, WITH PERHAPS
EVEN SOME INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE THROUGH
THE 30S...WHICH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES FOR
THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP, LED BY WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A MOISTURE LADEN SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THURSDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHERN FLOW
AMPLIFICATION BEINGS AND COLD AIR FROM CANADA IS RE-INTRODUCED INTO
THE REGION.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ADDRESSING DETAILS FROM BOTH LATE THURSDAY SYSTEM AND
ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE THIS WEEKEND.
DETAILS:
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY, CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT CONNECTION TO GULF OF AMERICA
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT BY GUIDANCE DERIVED MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWING
PLUME OF ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CUTTING INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. PRE-SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A MILD
ONE, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY LIKELY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ARRIVAL OF RAIN SHOULD NEGATE ANY NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH EVEN SOME SUGGESTION PARTS OF OUR AREA GETS
INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CUTS UP ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN... SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TOP/DOWN
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT, WITH MOISTURE PROFILES
SUPPORTING SOME DECENT RAIN TOTALS...UP AND OVER HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME INDICATIONS OF OVER ONE INCH TOTALS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
NOT EXPECTING ANY ICE FORMATION OF COURSE GIVEN THE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS AS RAIN FALLS ON SNOW-COVERED
AND ALREADY ICE-PACKED SECONDARY ROADS. OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME
LOCAL DRAINAGE ISSUES FROM NOW SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS, NOT SEEING ANY
HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND LACK OF FROST DEPTH.
PERHAPS JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH STILL MILD HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
INTERACTION AS TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...AT LEAST SETTING
THE TABLE FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THAT UNFOLDS, BUT SOMETHING TO
DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE ON IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND.
EVEN WITHOUT A WRAPPED UP SYSTEM, STILL LOOKING AT A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL-LIKE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME LAKE SNOW
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR/LIFR THRU WED MORNING. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THERE,
RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THRU
WED MORNING AT ALL SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, WITH A BIT OF A WSW BREEZE
DEVELOPING WED AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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