716
FXUS63 KAPX 071711
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1211 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH LIGHT
WINDS, HIGHS IN THE 30S, AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AND OVERNIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS NORTHERN
MI. CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY THIN THROUGH
THE DAY, PERHAPS ALLOWING SMALL FAINT PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE
THIS EVENING, BUT THINKING PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HINDER
ANY MEANINGFUL CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 30S
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE KEEPS THINGS QUIETER WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT, LEADING TO POTENTIAL PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
A RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDING PERIOD AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED TO OUR NORTH
BENEATH A DISPLACED NORTHERN JET. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS CONTINUE TO WARM FURTHER
THURSDAY WHEN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY REACH THE LOW 40S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A MOISTURE RICH SYSTEM NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT, TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH MILD PRE-
SYSTEM AIRMASS AND A LIKELY CONNECTION TO GULF MOISTURE, CURRENT
TRENDS FAVOR PRIMARILY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO POTENTIALLY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH TOTALS
BY EARLY FRIDAY EXCEEDING A HALF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WHILE FREEZING RAIN IS NOT A CONCERN, AS STATED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER, RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EXISTING SNOWPACK AND ICY
SECONDARY ROADS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND, WHEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES, POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN ENERGY. THIS COULD INTRODUCE COLDER
AIR AND RAISE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONCERNS AGAIN, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS GIVEN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
WITH A CHANCE FOR POST SYSTEM LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SUBOPTIMAL FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A COMMON THEME
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS BR IS THE WORD. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE WE JUST DROP BACK DOWN TO FIRMLY IFR, PERHAPS
EVEN LIFR IN PLACES. MOST PROBLEMATIC WILL LIKELY BE MBL, PLN,
AND CIU, WHICH COULD EASILY SEE BOTH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO FG. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THIS POP UP AT OTHER SITES, LIKELY TO A LESSER EXTENT. ALL
NORTHERN LOWER SITES (EXCEPT PLN) LIKELY SEE SOME FORM OF
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS THURSDAY... WITH AN
OUTSIDE SHOT OF VFR BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD. CIU AND PLN
WILL LIKELY HOLD AT LEAST IFR THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE
PERIOD.
LIGHT SW WINDS TURN S TO SSE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...HAD
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