138
FXUS63 KAPX 080003
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- A BIT COOLER WITH PERHAPS MORE SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
KINDA UNUSUAL TO END THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH NO ARCTIC
MODIFIED AIR TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE CONUS. WELL, THAT IS INDEED THE
CASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPLETE NORTH RETREAT OF NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW HAS LOCKED ALL THE REAL COLD AIR ACROSS THE TUNDRA REGIONS OF
CANADA. DESPITE PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
SIMPLE BREADTH OF A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH CURRENT
READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. AIRMASS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WARM
WITH TIME AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST...TAPPING INTO SOME
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
FOG TRENDS TONIGHT, WITH CONCERNS THEN CENTERING ON JUST HOW WARM WE
GET AND LATE DAY RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.
DETAILS:
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (HELPED ALONG BY TODAY'S
SNOWMELT) WILL AGAIN LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT, BUT DEFINITELY
COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING FOG AND ISOLATED AREAS
OF LOWER VISIBILITIES. A MILD NIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WORKING ON AN VERY MILD LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ENVIRONMENT SETTING THE STAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TO MAKE A RUN AT THE LOWER 40S...WITH JUST A BIT COOLER
READINGS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE. MAY SEE SOME LATE DAY RAIN START
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST AREAS AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE STARTS TO INTRODUCE ITSELF. MAIN
RAIN EVENT HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT INFORMATION IS TO
FOLLOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
DEFINITELY AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH AT
LEAST TWO SYSTEMS SET TO IMPACT OUR AREA. FIRST ONE IS A WARM AND
WET ONE, WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RIDE UP ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A BUCKLING NORTHERN STREAM AND ADDITIONAL
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND, PERHAPS
DRUMMING UP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA.
WHILE NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT, MORE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, RETURNING OUR TEMPERATURES TO MORE TYPICAL
MID-JANUARY LEVELS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
INITIAL FOCUS ON RAIN EVOLUTION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONCERNS THEN BECOME DIRECTED AT THIS WEEKENDS POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.
DETAILS:
THURSDAY NIGHT DEFINITELY NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE SNOW-LOVERS
AMONGST US AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PRE-
SYSTEM AIRMASS IS ALREADY MILD, AND EXPECTED TRACK NOW PLACES MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT, AND COULD EASILY SEE AT LEAST
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING (WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEARING OR APPROACHING RECORD
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY). STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL, WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP
AND OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EASILY SUPPORTING RAIN AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PASSAGE LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT
AN INCH. THIS RAIN, COMBINED WITH THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES AND WELL
ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS, WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT SNOW MELTING...
ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. WHILE NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS, DEFINITELY COULD SEE SOME STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS
AS WELL AS A DECENT RESPONSE IN OUR RIVERS. WHILE NO FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED, COULD ALSO SEE THE SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES BECOME QUITE SLICK BEFORE MELTING IS COMPLETE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT ON FRIDAY, BUT LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT COLD SOURCE WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND CONTINUE THE MELT PROCESS. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. ATTENTION QUICKLY
FOCUSES ON NEXT SYSTEM SET TO VISIT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. STILL MANY MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM, WITH ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK HIGHLY PREDICATED BY HOW MUCH
INTERACTION OCCURS WITH SOUTHEAST DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM SUPPORT ROTATING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS
EXPECTED, SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SUITE IS STILL QUITE LARGE, BUT
WILL SAY THERE ARE INCREASING MEMBERS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER AND EAST
DISPLACED SYSTEM THAN WHAT WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. WITH THAT SAID,
SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY, WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM INFLUENCES LIKELY ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME LAKE COMPONENT TO
DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SIMPLY TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO OFFER ANY REAL SPECIFICS, WITH BEST ADVICE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE UPCOMING FORECASTS FOR THE MORE THAN EXPECTED FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
BY SUNDAY IN THE 20S (ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR).
BROAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
AT LEAST ALLOWING OUR TEMPERATURES TO FALL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS. FLOW REGIME DOES OFFER THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME PASSING
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST AS OF NOW, NOT SEEING ANYTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT
HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
EXPECTING LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. SOME SIGNALS WE COULD
SCATTER OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR IF SO. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNALS WE COULD SCATTER OUT FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS, TILL ABOUT 20-23Z WHEN NEXT RAIN CHANCES
START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW... BUT THINK CIGS/VISBYS WILL STAY
CLOSER TO IFR DUE TO MELTING SNOW HERE. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
TURN SE AFTER 9-12Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS THRU THE DAY, ESP AFTER
18Z. SSW 30+KT LLJ AROUND 1500-2000FT LIKELY TO KEEP LLWS IN PLAY
ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z THURS, BUT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR MBL, TVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...FEF
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