806
FXUS63 KAPX 080807
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
307 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- A BIT COOLER WITH PERHAPS MORE SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PATCHY FOG, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE
AREAS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, FOG SHOULD LESSEN, BUT MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER. CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING, THE LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN TO REACH SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, THOUGH ANY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THERMAL
PROFILE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
WITH FORECAST LOW PLACEMENT FAVORING MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
RESIDING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT ABOVE FREEZING, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AROUND 50 DEGREES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING OVER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE RAPID SNOWMELT AND ENHANCED RUNOFF...
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EXISTING SNOWPACK AND ICY SECONDARY
ROADS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT, THOUGH THE ABSENCE OF
COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL KEEP READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AND CONTINUE
ONGOING SNOWMELT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FORECAST ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION REMAINS CLOSELY TIED TO THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM FORCING LIFTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD/ DISAGREEMENT ON LOW TRACK AN INTENSITY, BUT SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL OR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MI LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... WITH SUGGESTED
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING
A LAKE ENHANCED COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND COOLER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 20S.
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PREVAILING
FLOW LOOKING TO FAVOR OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT...SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD DECK LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BUT EXPECT ANY
CLEARING WILL RESULT IN VSBY REDUCTIONS BACK TO IFR/LIFR. POSSIBLE
THE IFR CIGS LINE GETS NORTH OF MBL TONIGHT BUT EXPECT BR/FG TO
BRING VISBYS BACK DOWN. CIGS COULD REMAIN VFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY,
ESP 15-20Z...BUT WILL DROP BACK TO IFR AND LOWER AFTER 21-0Z WITH
RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL EXPECT S 25-30KT LLJ AROUND
1500-2000FT TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40+KTS AFTER 18Z...ATOP
SUSTAINED 10-15KTS FROM THE SE AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE ACROSS
MBL/TVC/PLN AND COULD KEEP WINDS LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ341-
342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...FEF
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