611
FXUS63 KAPX 081813
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING; WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK; SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A
CONTINUALLY WARMING AIRMASS LOCALLY AS DEEP LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP. ATTENTION IN THE NEAR-TERM
WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH IS SET TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERN MI SOLIDLY
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD-SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES (ALBEIT FOLLOWING A
NON-DIRUNAL TREND).
FORECAST DETAILS: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM THE MID-30S FAR
NORTH AND THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER -- EVEN SOME
LOW 50S! ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. INITIAL RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50+ DEGREES, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF APX'S
FOOTPRINT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEARING OR EXCEEDING DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY, DESPITE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE WITH THOSE WARMEST TEMPS COMING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL -- PWS PROGGED TO
BALLOON TO >0.75" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PERHAPS NEARING 1.00"
CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY. THESE VALUES + 3 TO 4 SD ABOVE THE EARLY
JANUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AND ABOVE THE DAILY MAX PER APX/SSM
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY DATING BACK TO 1948. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER AS DRY SLOTTING PREVAILS LATER OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN RAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THOSE
IN THE EASTERN UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PASSAGE, AND
LESS AFFECTED BY DRY SLOTTING, POTENTIALLY 1.00"+ IN SPOTS.
WHILE NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING, DEFINITELY COULD
SEE SOME STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AS WELL AS A DECENT
RESPONSE IN OUR RIVERS. SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES
LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE SLICK BEFORE MELTING IS COMPLETE.
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA, BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE DIMINISHING
ENTIRELY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE,
HIGHEST EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS NORTHERN MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS/SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW, BUT
POTENTIAL DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR ACCUMULATING/POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST NBM
PROBS WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%+) FOR 4"+ OF SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON - SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM PROBS (25-45%) ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR >6". THAT SAID, LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MEMBERS DEPICTING A WEAK
AND EAST DISPLACED SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD
IMPACTFUL SNOW. THIS SHOWN WELL IN LATEST LREF PROBS WITH LOW-MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (15-45%) OF 4"+, AND LOW (<25%) PROBS FOR 6"+.
CERTAINLY A TIME FRAME WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS,
WITH PLENTY MORE DETAILS TO COME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY IN THE 20S.
MONDAY - THURSDAY: BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, AND WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
MONDAY/TUESDAY, THERE IS GROWING LIKELIHOOD THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR RETURNS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. SIMPLE FLOW REGIME AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
APPROACHING -RA LOWERS CIG'S AND VISBY'S OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS BUILD AROUND THE 0000-0600Z TIMEFRAME TONIGHT
WITH KPLN, KCIU, AND KAPN CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR OVERIGHT
COMBINED WITH LLWS. POST FRONTAL WINDS VEER TO THE NW FRIDAY
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ341-
342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC
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