967
FXUS63 KAPX 082347
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING; WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK; SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A
CONTINUALLY WARMING AIRMASS LOCALLY AS DEEP LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP. ATTENTION IN THE NEAR-TERM
WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH IS SET TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERN MI SOLIDLY
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD-SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES (ALBEIT FOLLOWING A
NON-DIRUNAL TREND).
FORECAST DETAILS: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM THE MID-30S FAR
NORTH AND THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER -- EVEN SOME
LOW 50S! ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. INITIAL RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50+ DEGREES, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF APX'S
FOOTPRINT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEARING OR EXCEEDING DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY, DESPITE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE WITH THOSE WARMEST TEMPS COMING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL -- PWS PROGGED TO
BALLOON TO >0.75" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PERHAPS NEARING 1.00"
CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY. THESE VALUES + 3 TO 4 SD ABOVE THE EARLY
JANUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AND ABOVE THE DAILY MAX PER APX/SSM
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY DATING BACK TO 1948. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER AS DRY SLOTTING PREVAILS LATER OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN RAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THOSE
IN THE EASTERN UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PASSAGE, AND
LESS AFFECTED BY DRY SLOTTING, POTENTIALLY 1.00"+ IN SPOTS.
WHILE NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING, DEFINITELY COULD
SEE SOME STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AS WELL AS A DECENT
RESPONSE IN OUR RIVERS. SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES
LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE SLICK BEFORE MELTING IS COMPLETE.
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA, BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE DIMINISHING
ENTIRELY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE,
HIGHEST EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS NORTHERN MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS/SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW, BUT
POTENTIAL DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR ACCUMULATING/POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST NBM
PROBS WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%+) FOR 4"+ OF SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON - SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM PROBS (25-45%) ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR >6". THAT SAID, LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MEMBERS DEPICTING A WEAK
AND EAST DISPLACED SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD
IMPACTFUL SNOW. THIS SHOWN WELL IN LATEST LREF PROBS WITH LOW-MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (15-45%) OF 4"+, AND LOW (<25%) PROBS FOR 6"+.
CERTAINLY A TIME FRAME WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS,
WITH PLENTY MORE DETAILS TO COME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY IN THE 20S.
MONDAY - THURSDAY: BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, AND WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
MONDAY/TUESDAY, THERE IS GROWING LIKELIHOOD THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR RETURNS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. SIMPLE FLOW REGIME AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
RAIN SHOULD START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 0Z FROM SW TO NE.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERY ELEMENTS; NON-ZERO THREAT OF TS SOUTH OF
PLN WITH DRY SLOT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT THREAT IS QUITE
LOW ATTM. CIGS GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR BUT COULD BOUNCE UP TO MVFR AT
TIMES AS DRY SLOT CROSSES TONIGHT BETWEEN 2Z AND 10Z; VISBYS LOWER
IN HEAVIER RAIN AND WITH FOG. EXPECT TRANSITION TO SN AFTER 12-15Z
BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS BUT VISBYS COULD BE LOWER. DRY SLOT
COULD ALSO BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT...EXPECTING A
SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 35-45+KTS AROUND 1500-2000FT THRU THE NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING; THIS SHOULD TURN TO THE NW AND START TO MIX DOWN AS
EARLY AS 10-14Z AND ESP AFTER THAT, BEHIND COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED
WINDS 5-15KT GENERALLY ESE TO SE TURNING AROUND TO THE S/W OVERNIGHT
AND THEN NW BY 12-15Z AT 10-20KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ341-
342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page