972
FXUS63 KAPX 090711
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
211 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOWMELT TODAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON... FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MAY REFREEZE WATER ON ROADWAYS LEADING TO POTENTIAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES THIS EVENING/ TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- A BIT COOLER WITH MORE SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OBSERVED IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA. ONGOING RAIN WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH OR BREIFLY
CHANGING TO SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER
AIR WORKS IN. GIVEN RECENT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN, PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS LIKELY AT TIMES,
BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME THE MORE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TODAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SLIPPING BELOW FREEZING
BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY ALLOW ANY STANDING
WATER ON ROADS TO BEGIN FREEZING TOWARD EVENING. ASIDE FROM
GUSTY WINDS, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INT THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FINER DETAILS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE, POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR ACCUMULATING, AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL, SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4". HOWEVER, AN IMPORTANT NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE IS ALSO
TRENDING TOWARDS A WEAKER AND MORE SOUTH AND EAST TRACK WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MORE LIMITED
IMPACTS...STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TWEAKED/
CHANGED IN THE COMING FORCAST CYCLES AS DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS BY SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 20S. BROAD SCALE TROUGHING
APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PREVAILING FLOW LOOKING TO
FAVOR OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND
INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS ACROSS NE LOWER/OSC/APN (NOT SURE
TS WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS APN THOUGH) AND ADD'L RAIN ACROSS
STRAITS NEAR/NORTH OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
ALONG/BEHIND FRONT/LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE BACK IN AROUND 10-
15Z. EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 15-18Z
FROM W TO E, WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VISBYS (BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AROUND 10-15Z)...AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN THRU THIS
TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN VC; EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 15- 25KTS ESP AROUND 18Z... EXCEPT IF LOW TRACKS OVER
CIU/PLN, COULD SEE MUCH LOWER SUSTAINED WINDS THAN EXPECTED.
ALSO EXPECTING GUSTS 40- 50KTS BEHIND FRONT, CENTERED AROUND
18Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ016>018-020>030-086>088-095>099.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ031>036-041-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ323-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...FEF
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