941
FXUS63 KAPX 091147
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOWMELT TODAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON... FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MAY REFREEZE WATER ON ROADWAYS LEADING TO POTENTIAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES THIS EVENING/ TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- A BIT COOLER WITH MORE SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OBSERVED IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA. ONGOING RAIN WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH OR BREIFLY
CHANGING TO SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER
AIR WORKS IN. GIVEN RECENT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN, PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS LIKELY AT TIMES,
BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME THE MORE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TODAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SLIPPING BELOW FREEZING
BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY ALLOW ANY STANDING
WATER ON ROADS TO BEGIN FREEZING TOWARD EVENING. ASIDE FROM
GUSTY WINDS, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INT THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FINER DETAILS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE, POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR ACCUMULATING, AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL, SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4". HOWEVER, AN IMPORTANT NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE IS ALSO
TRENDING TOWARDS A WEAKER AND MORE SOUTH AND EAST TRACK WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MORE LIMITED
IMPACTS...STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TWEAKED/
CHANGED IN THE COMING FORCAST CYCLES AS DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS BY SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 20S. BROAD SCALE TROUGHING
APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PREVAILING FLOW LOOKING TO
FAVOR OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND
INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS MANY SITES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR/VFR. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE
ACROSS MOST SITES AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND MORE PRECIP MOVES
IN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONT, GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, LIKELY DROPPING VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES TO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALSO WEAKEN, RETURNING TO VFR AS
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO SCATTER OUT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>030-086>088-095>099.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ031>036-041-
042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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