503
FXUS63 KAPX 100406
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1106 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR; PERIODS OF ACTIVE WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRETTY QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT OCCURRING, BACKSIDE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS AREA-WIDE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY HAZARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REVOLVES
AROUND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS ~40 MPH.
THE PEAK OF THESE WINDS SHOULD REALLY BE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
WITH A FAIRLY RAPID DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND EVEN
MORE SO THROUGH THE EVENING. NONETHELESS, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ALREADY NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SEE NO REASON
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WON'T OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD OF MAX GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALL SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW EARLIER TODAY HAS CLEARED STAGE
RIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW LINGERING ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER.
FOCUS TONIGHT TURNS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA FALLS INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S BY 00-04Z. ANY WET ROADS OR STILL SNOW- COVERED
SECONDARY ROADS THAT WEREN'T ABLE TO FULLY MELT OVER THE LAST
24-36 HOURS LIKELY TO BECOME VERY SLICK. OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THIS WEEKEND WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AMPLIFIED TROUGHING EXPECTED TO BE CARVED
ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WITH TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY TO
NOTE -- ONE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MORE
ROBUST MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE WAVES
EXPECTED TO PHASE TO SOME EXTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MI THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING (MAY START AS A
BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET) WITH BEST FORCING TO FOLLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THUS AN EXPECTED UPTICK IN
SNOWFALL INTENSITY/RATES. WHILE SNOW TURNS MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT,
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MAY CONTINUE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ MICHIGAN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI/SAGINAW BAY/
CENTRAL LAKE HURON, INITIAL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING OFF OF LAKE HURON
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AND SOUTHEAST CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER SECTIONS
OF THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST LOWER SNOW BELTS. WINDS DO BECOME BREEZY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES, MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE SOME REFINEMENT STILL ANTICIPATED, 24-30
HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FAVORED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-3" NEAR SAGINAW BAY, 3-6" NORTH AND WEST
OF THERE IN NORTHERN LOWER, AND 2.5 - 4.5" IN THE EASTERN U.P. SOME
OF THOSE ENHANCEMENT AREAS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS -- MAINLY FAVORED FOR
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND CHEBOYGAN TO ALPENA AND IN TYPICAL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS OF NW LOWER. IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS SATURDAY-SATURDAY
NIGHT. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT LATER TRENDS MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH
TO ADD AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE EASTERN U.P.
MONDAY - FRIDAY: PERIODS OF ACTIVE WINTRY WEATHER LOOK TO CONTINUE
AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MAKE A
RUN AT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIAL CHANCES BRIEFLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY, ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH GRAZES THE
AREA. BEYOND THIS WAVE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
30S DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER MORE ROBUST
WAVE SET TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES -- PERHAPS LAKE ENHANCED AT TIMES AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE VERY TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
FLURRIES/FZDZ POSSIBLE, ESP AFTER 9-12Z...BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SN AFTER THAT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TO BECOME IFR AFTER 12-15Z WITH
SNOW MOVING IN; PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE, ESP IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SE/E AND STAY THERE AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT MBL/TVC WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO W/SW AROUND 19-21Z
BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER; EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THIS THRU REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY
WINDS TRANSITION ELSEWHERE BUT WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW
BAND NEAR APN/PLN OR CIU NEAR/AFTER 21-0Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-022>024-028>030-034>036-097-098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-099.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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