014
FXUS63 KAPX 101812
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
112 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER
THIS MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER WITH CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- STRENGTHENING WINDS THIS THIS EVENING WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH IN SPOTS.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW
CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVING EARLY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE OBS
SHOWING CALM WINDS. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THIS AIRMASS
WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR ABOVE (INVERSION SITS AROUND 2.5 - 3 KFT
AS SEEN ON THE 00Z RAOB).
AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER MI, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OVER ND/MN, WITH A ~1015MB SURFACE LOW STARTING TO TAKE
SHAPE (CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS IN MN/CAN).
SOME WARM SECTOR SNOW IS MOVING INTO WI. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT
SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN WI. AN IDEALLY TILTED STACK IN
THE VERTICAL WILL ALIGN WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT
(WHICH REACHES DOWN TOWARDS IL). WARM SECTOR SNOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TODAY.
SNOWFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN
LK HURON COASTAL AREAS (SE CHIPP AND EASTERN MACK COUNTIES) AS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL WHICH WILL RESULT IN TIMES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN
THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME. JUMPING BACK TO THE MORNING
HOURS (BEFORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW), IDEAL FORCING
WILL LIKELY OUTRUN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ALREADY EXISTING, SOME SOUNDING PROFILES
SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING UNTIL THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AND PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW MID TO LATE
MORNING.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER MORE
MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH A FEW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ORIENTED
FROM NW/SE AND STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. DOWN INTO
NORTHERN LOWER. THIS AREA OF GENERALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
TRACK ACROSS NW LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH A
DECENTLY SHARP CUT OFF TO LIGHT OR NO SNOW AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND WEST WINDS BUILD IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS BEING TOO DRY AND NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A
ROBUST LAKE EFFECT ENGINE TO INITIATE YET. WEST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL. THESE WEST WINDS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE, HOWEVER
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS THE NOW ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AND BECOME MORE ZONAL.
WHERE THIS SETS UP IS STILL DEBATED BY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER AN AREA
OF FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE STRAIGHTS AND M-72 (LIKELY NEAR M-32). OVER THIS AREA,
HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA SHOW ROBUST PROFILES THAT COULD YIELD SNOW
CHARACTERISTICS NEAR NORMAL, WHICH COULD "FEEL" WET COMPARED TO
THE TYPICAL DRY SNOW CHARACTERISTIC NORTHERN MI IS USED TO.
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS FOR THIS
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
FALLING, WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.
THOUGHTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY:
*NORTH OF M-72: 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WHERE THE BAND OF FOCUSED PRECIP SETS UP
*NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72: 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
AND WEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
*EASTERN UPPER: 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
LK HURON COASTAL AREAS
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER LK HURON AND CONTINUES EAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NW
OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE FOCUSED BAND OF
PRECIP SOUTHWARD, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FOLLOW THIS FORCING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT PRODUCING MORE MODERATE SNOW OVER
NW LOWER SUNDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MID DAY, BUT WILL LIKELY CUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO
WARMER LL TEMPS MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN UNDER THE CAA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL BLOW SNOW AROUND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
THOUGHTS ON ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS 1 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY:
*NE LOWER: 1 TO 3 INCHES, HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF M-32 AS SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
*NW LOWER: 2 TO 3 INCHES, HIGHEST OVER TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS
*EASTERN UPPER: 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS
A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS CAN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BRING A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE U.P. AND
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT AS THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME
MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THIS, HOWEVER FORCING IS
WEAK AND THE SYSTEM IS IN AND OUT BY MID DAY MONDAY (BESIDES
SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MORE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER). A COUPLE MORE INCHES WILL LIKELY FALL OVER
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS (EASTERN UPPER/TIP
OF THE MITT). THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER CYCLONE FORMING AND TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK (AS EARLY AS TUESDAY). THIS EVENT COULD BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN TO THE CWA ON TUESDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WED-THURS. ENSEMBLES (LREF
AND GEFS-AI) ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER STRONGER SIGNALS OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES DO EXIST.. WHICH POINTS TOWARDS A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONGOING -SN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
FOLLOWED BY BKN AND OVC CIG'S LESS THAN 020. SOME IFR AND
LIFR POTENTIAL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY; ESPECIALLY
AT KCIU, KPLN, AND KAPN FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
022>024-028>030-034>036-086>088-095>098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ020-021-
025>027-031>033-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...SJC
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