513
FXUS63 KAPX 102331
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER WITH CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- STRENGTHENING WINDS THIS THIS EVENING WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH IN SPOTS.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW
CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVING TUESDAY, AND A THIRD SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST, EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND CANADA. A GENERALLY WEAK, STRUNG OUT, AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRECEDES THE UPPER TROFFING. THE UPPER-LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WEAKENING AND SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS MOST OF THE JET
ENERGY WITHIN THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROF. A DOUBLE BARREL DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT, MOST NOTABLY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. A TROF/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WESTERN EXTENT
OF THIS TROF WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SURFACE PRESSURE DEEPENS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEARING/DEFORMATION AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS.
WHILE THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE EARLY THIS EVENING
AND LATER TONIGHT, A PERIOD OF SLOWER MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BAND PIVOTS.
AT THIS POINT THIS PIVOT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIER BAND. CURRENT STORM TOTAL
FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS (INCLUDING THIS AFTERNOON) OF A GENERAL
3-6" SNOWFALL STILL LOOK REASONABLE, BUT HAVE BUMPED UP TOTALS IN
THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW AXIS AND SHIFTED IT SOUTH A BIT.
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 7"+ ARE LIKELY WHERE THE BAND SITS THE
LONGEST. SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: AREA REMAINS UNDER AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
PERIODIC CLIPPER SYSTEMS. GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK TURN BELOW NORMAL BEHIND MIDWEEK CLIPPER.
FORECAST DETAILS: FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARRIVES LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND SHOULD NOT RESULT
IN APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND IMPACTS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SIMPLY RAIN ON
TUESDAY. IT TURNS COLD ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER TO KICK ON
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
CLIPPER MAY ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS DEFINITE
MODEL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK GENERALLY ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR BETWEEN TVC
AND APN THIS EVENING, THEN DRAG A FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
7-9Z. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED NEAR/NORTH OF THIS...LIKELY IMPACTING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TVC/PLN/APN BUT COULD GET AS FAR NORTH AS
CIU...WITH LIFR CIGS/VISBYS BENEATH THAT; IMPROVING BEHIND IT. MBL
LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF THIS BAND AND COULD BE MVFR TO VFR AT TIMES
TILL CLOSER TO 6-9Z WHEN FRONT PIVOTS BACK DOWN THRU AREA. SNOW AND
LOWER CIGS/VISBYS SHOULD DEPART AFTER 15Z WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE FOR CIU/PLN...BUT -SHSN COULD LINGER THRU AFTERNOON ON
NW/WNW WINDS. COMPLEX WIND FORECAST WITH E/NE WINDS NORTH OF LOW
CENTER AND WNW SOUTH OF IT TONIGHT; ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
N/NNW AROUND 6-9Z AND INCREASE TO 10-20KTS, GUSTING ABOVE 30KTS AT
TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
022>024-028>030-034>036-086>088-095>098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ020-021-
025>027-031>033-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...FEF
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