810
FXUS63 KAPX 112322
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
622 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN
UPPER AND SNOW BELT AREAS IN NORTHERN LOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY
- NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, BRINING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW. A
LITTLE ICING IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER
AREA OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: ABOVE MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY
FOR A TIME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER (GUSTS TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE), WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
OF THE FORECAST WITH ANOTHER STRONGER CLIPPER POISED TO IMPACT THE
AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE DRIVING THIS NEXT CLIPPER IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. A THIRD CLIPPER IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT MODEL SPREAD IN THE
TIMING/DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SIGNIFICANT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPILLING IN BEHIND IT.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE MIDWEEK CLIPPER STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE LOW-
LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN FOR
A TIME DURING THE DAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY AS LIGHT ICING LOOKS POSSIBLE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE CLIPPER STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THIS COLDER AIR WILL
BE WITH US FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
(FAVORING NORTHERLY FLOW SNOW BELTS) LOOKS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A DRYING AIR MASS AND LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS BRINGS IT TO AN END.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATE WEEK AND MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONLY SNOW AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER, MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT AS GOOD ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT ESP FOR CIU AND PLN...AROUND 4-9Z,
AND AGAIN AROUND 13-17Z. LESS CONFIDENT IN TVC/APN, AND DON'T
EXPECT IT TO REACH MBL ATTM. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/VISBYS BUT COULD
BE REDUCED TO IFR IN SNOW, ESP CIU/PLN. PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE,
ESP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LARGELY FROM THE WSW/SW 10-15KTS,
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25- 30KTS IF WE TAP A W/SW 30KT LLJ AROUND
2KFT, WHICH IS LIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE THESE WINDS REMAIN
TRAPPED AS LLWS TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
344>346.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...SJC/FEF
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