814
FXUS63 KAPX 120713
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
213 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING
- RAIN WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY, THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY
- CHANCES GROW FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING
OVER NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE
HUDSON BAY HAS CARRIED A WARM SECTOR EASTWARD WITH IT, WITH SOME
WASHED OUT HINTS OF THIS EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
ROUGHLY 13MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE (N/S) IS
BEING GENERATED DUE TO THIS AIRMASS EXTENDING TOWARDS A 1030 SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED SOUND OF THE STATE. THIS AND A 35 TO 40KT JET AT 850
MB IS LEADING TO ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH SOME
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. WITH
GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT, A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL HELP PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT. THE LACK OF MORE
SUFFICIENT LIFT, AND THE SHORT TIME WINDOW (SNOW WILL BE OUT OF HERE
BY THE MID MORNING HOURS), LEADS TO ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THESE SPOTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND WEAKEN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA (AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING), IS CURRENTLY JUST STARTING TAKE FORM AS AN AREA OF BROAD
AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED LEE TROUGHING NEAR THE NORTHERN CAN ROCKIES
(THANKS TO AN UPPER JET OF ~120KTS RACING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND
ENTERING CAN BY JUNEAU AK). THIS CYCLONE WILL INTENSITY AS THAT
UPPER JET CONTINUES TO RACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. EARLY
TUESDAY, IT WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE ESTABLISHES STORM TRACK
AND TOWARDS THE CAN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME,
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN US.
THIS UPPER TROUGHING IS WEAKER, BEING BROAD WITH GRADIENTS WASHED
OUT. DUE TO THE NON-AMPLIFIED PATTERN, MOST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS (AND CONTINUES TO) TRACK THE CYCLONE'S CENTER JUST
NORTH OF MI AND OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS MEANS THAT MORE WARM
SECTOR PRECIP WILL MOVE OVER MI EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS CYCLONE TRACKS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS, SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME TIMES OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES COULD STILL BE
IN THE HIGH 20S. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE TDS, AREAS
OF FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ULTIMATELY RISE INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 30S WITH SURFACE TDS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A FEW WAVES OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE 0C 850 MB
LINE WILL BE WIGGLING OVER THE CWA WITH THE INTIAL ONSET OF MORE
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING (LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET LEADING TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIV). THIS IS ENOUGH LIFT IN A SATURATED DGZ TO HAVE SNOWFALL,
HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB. AT THIS TIME,
THOUGHTS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS INTENSITIES
BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SNOW.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, FORCING MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND BE MOSTLY
RAIN, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EASTERN UPPER. BEHIND THE SURFACE
CYCLONE, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER MI DEEPENS. LAKE ENHANCED AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY. ITS
STILL EARLY FOR SNOW TOTALS, HOWEVER WINDS COULD BE MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FOCUS MORE SNOW OVER GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND
WEST. AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN IN ADVISORY LEVELS WITH A
FEW ISOLATED PLACES MAYBE SEEING GREATER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
END THURSDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES, BRINING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SW WINDS 5-15KTS GUSTING 20-30KTS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS; COULD
SHIFT BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN WSW AND SW AT TIMES INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON, TURNING SW AGAIN AFTER 0Z TUESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR
TO VFR CIGS; BEST SHOT AT IFR WILL BE BETWEEN 6-12Z MONDAY AT CIU
AND POSSIBLY PLN WITH LIGHT SNOW...LESS CERTAINTY IN SNOW REACHING
TVC/APN AND EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR MBL. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY (HENCE VFR) BEFORE 10KFT+
CLOUD DECK SLIPS BACK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCATTERED IFR CIGS TRY TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-
347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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