419
FXUS63 KAPX 122341
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.
- COLDER AIR AND ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY.
- ACTIVE WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING WAVE THAT BROUGHT
LIGHT/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS NOW DISPLACED WELL DOWNSTREAM. FOCUS TURNS UPSTREAM TO A MID-
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TREKKING ACROSS ALBERTA. THIS DISTURBANCE
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS MANITOBA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTH OF ANJ BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
WARM ADVECTION MIXED PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS DOWNSTREAM TUESDAY NIGHT, MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO FLOOD
INTO NORTHERN MI BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW TO FOLLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT -- JUST A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR WHITEFISH BAY/POINT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THOSE THAT SEE PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDING UP
AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AREA-WIDE.
BY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, INITIAL PRECIP
CHANCES BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST TRENDS POINT
TOWARD THIS FALLING AS PRIMARILY RAIN, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SFC
TEMPS UPON ARRIVAL FOR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE INITIALLY.
STEADIEST BATCH OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AREA-WIDE BY THIS TIME. WHILE PRIMARILY RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED, THOSE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY STAY PRIMARILY SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD LARGELY BE MINIMAL (UP TO AN
INCH OR SO, HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN U.P.), BUT COULD RESULT IN A
SLUSHY MESS ACROSS SOME AREAS.
LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY PERCOLATE INTO AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE AND
FROM THE MID-TEENS TO MID-20S OVER NORTHERN LOWER. ANY WET/UNTREATED
AND SECONDARY ROADS FROM DAYTIME/EVENING RAIN LIKELY TO REFREEZE.
THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ACCUMULATION UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: MUCH MORE WINTRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MI ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY NORTH
WINDS AND A RETURN OF SNOW. WHILE TUESDAY'S SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL DOWNSTREAM, RENEWED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM A SECONDARY WAVE
ALOFT DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY, SHOULD GENERATE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
FOCUS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON SHORELINES GIVEN PREDOMINANTLY
NORTH WINDS. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DON'T SEE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
SNOW AND FURTHER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LIKELY BRINGING A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS FAR NORTH
AND THE MID-20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FAR SOUTH. WINDS CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP
WITH ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM(S) SET TO TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. SNOW CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE NEXT SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. HOT ON ITS HEELS, LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BREEZY WIND
POTENTIAL -- ALONG WITH RESULTANT IMPACTS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT
TIMES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COLD TEMPERATURES TO ACCOMPANY
THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-MONDAY WHERE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
RISE MUCH ABOVE THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VCSH POSSIBLE AT CIU THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
NIGHT; LIFR LIKELY AFTER 15Z WITH -SN. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO VFR BUT
WATCHING SOME SIGNALS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH COULD DROP
VISBYS TO IFR OR LOWER. OTHERWISE...RASN FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 11Z,
COULD SWITCH TO ALL RA FOR MANY SITES AFTER 18Z. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO
SEE ZR BUT SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IFR TO LIFR IN
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY; MBL AND TVC COULD REMAIN MVFR TO VFR AT TIMES
BETWEEN WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS LARGELY S TO SSE OVERNIGHT 5-
10KTS, BECOMING S TO SSW AFTER 15Z AND SW TO W AFTER 18-21Z. LLWS
LIKELY ESP 5-15Z BUT COULD START MIXING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AS 25-
35KT GUSTS. NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AROUND 0Z WED WITH FALLING TEMPS
AND SN IN ITS WAKE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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