540
FXUS63 KAPX 180408
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1108 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
- ALBERTA CLIPPER BRINGS MORE IMPACTS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES STARTING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA TO START THIS
WEEKEND...PART OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MATCHING 3 SIGMA
STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITHIN A -EPO RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST (+3) AND WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS (-3). SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/PV ANOMALIES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION...STRONGEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH KANSAS/MISSOURI PER WV
IMAGERY. SMALL UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. ELONGATED
PV ANOMALY ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET STRETCHES FROM EASTERN
COLORADO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE ARE STRONG 500MB HEIGHT RISES
(+120M/12H) OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LOW
LEVEL LAKE AGGREGATE THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
PLUME OF COLD AIR (SUB -20C 850MB TEMPERATURES) ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST (850MB TEMPERATURES A RELATIVELY BALMY -10C AT APX AT
12Z COMPARED TO -25C AT BIS). 999MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF GEORGIAN
BAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE COMING
DAYS...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO FLOOD INTO THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN CONUS. PATTERN CONFIGURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH
MORE OF A REX BLOCK LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MAINTAINING HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA...AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING. SO WE ARE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF COLDER WEATHER.
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT...AS UPSTREAM ARCTIC HIGH SPLITS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AS
THESE FEATURES ARE WONT TO DO. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
CROSSING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND
SPIN UP ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SUNDAY. THIS WILL "PHASE" WITH
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND RESULT IN A
MORE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO MONDAY.
STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL USHER IN THE
REAL COLD ON MONDAY...WITH SUB-500DAM THICKNESSES ALWAYS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME HIGHS (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO).
MIDWEEK PERIOD MAY BRING SOMETHING OF A REPRIEVE AS THE SPIN-UP OF
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SWINGS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
(WARMER) COMPONENT FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF
COLDER AIR POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. THIS SAME PATTERN MAY BE ON REPEAT
FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (FRIDAY-SATURDAY) BUT THE
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...YIKES IF WE
GET IN THE WAY OF THAT. BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT/SUNDAY: A BROKEN AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES TO
SWIRL AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF IT
TIED TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...SOME OF IT TIED
TO THE SMALL UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...SOME OF IT LAKE INDUCED WITH
SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES (NORTHERLY ON LAKE SUPERIOR/WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON). PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND WITHIN OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHINESS AND SOMEWHAT
STEEPER LAPSE RATES/WEAKER STATIC STABILITY. FOR TONIGHT A BIT OF A
MESOSCALE MESS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION. INITIALLY
WILL BE WATCHING A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. LOOKING FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS FROM
THIS TROUGH: 1) PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A STRONG BAND THAT KICKS INTO
GEAR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...THIS SHOULD GET MORE PERSISTENT SNOW GOING
WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH A NICE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT (INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 700MB/-22C)...KINEMATIC FIELDS
ARE A BIT ON THE WEAK SIDE SO HAVE TO WONDER HOW FAR INLAND THIS
WILL EXTEND OR EVEN THE MORPHOLOGY (ORGANIZED HORIZONTAL ROLLS
VERSUS MORE "MUSHY" CONVECTION). HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT ARE PUSHING
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA (2-4+ INCHES) FROM MANISTEE UP TO
CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. WILL LUMP ALL THE HEADLINE
DISCUSSION IN THE ALBERT CLIPPER IMPACTS PARAGRAPH. 2) NEXT
QUESTION IS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND...HOW MUCH OF THE TIP
OF THE MITT COUNTIES DOES IT IMPACT (PROBABLY NOT MUCH??) AND HOW
FAR SOUTH IT WILL PROPAGATE (MAYBE M-32/M-72 CORRIDOR)...THOUGH MAY
SEE SNOW SHOWERS FLARE UP OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF GOOD THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAK
KINEMATICS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE BAYS ON LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH THEN DRIFTS
INLAND. WE'LL SEE HOW/IF THIS PANS OUT.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY...BUT
WILL ACTUALLY BE COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS SO THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT RELENT...WITH THE SNOW FOCUS ON
THE LEELANAU PENINSULA EARLY THEN SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD EMMET/
MACKINAC COUNTIES. ADD IN A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THIS BY LATE IN
THE DAY (MORE ON THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH) WILL LIKELY NEED
ADDITIONAL SNOW HEADLINES FOR THESE ZONES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
(ALREADY CARRYING 2-5+ INCHES FOR THE EMMET/WESTERN MACKINAC ZONES
JUST FOR SUNDAY).
ALBERTA CLIPPER BRINGS MORE IMPACTS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: MORE SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN PROBABLY STARTING LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW
OVER MICHIGAN. AS OF NOW STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH ORGANIZING CIRCULATION WILL LIKE
RESULT IN SOME WRAPAROUND/DEFORMATION SNOW MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE AN ISSUE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
EVOLUTION IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SPINS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY (AND THE COLD AND WIND WILL FOLLOW). SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -20C...THOUGH THAT WILL BEING TO
WREAK HAVOC WITH SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES WITH MORE PLATES/NEEDLES
AND MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER CONSISTENCY TO THE SNOW (LOWER SLR THAN
WHAT THE GUIDANCE WILL SUGGEST). WILL CERTAINLY BLOW AROUND READILY
BUT THE ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE COMPROMISED (THE WIND WON'T
HELP IN THAT REGARD EITHER). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 20-30+MPH
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
SOUTH OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. AND LEST WE FORGET FALLING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (THOUGH THAT IS A SEPARATE HEADLINE ISSUE
WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED MORE BELOW).
SO WHAT TO DO WITH ALL OF THAT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FROM A
HEADLINE PERSPECTIVE? WILL PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
1200Z SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES FROM
CHARLEVOIX DOWN TO MANISTEE INCLUDING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY TO COVER
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT MESOSCALE BANDING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DEFINITELY IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY/LOW
END WARNING AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...AND
THROW IN THE WIND/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE FOR A RATHER NASTY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THAT ALONE MIGHT
TIP THE BALANCE IN EVENTUAL FAVOR OF A WARNING...SO WILL START WITH
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES PLUS GRAND TRAVERSE/KALKASKA/WEXFORD (A WATCH TRANSITIONING
TO A HIGH END ADVISORY IS PERFECTLY ACCEPTABLE...THESE AREN'T PRE-
WARNINGS). WILL RUN THE WATCH TIME FROM 2100Z SUNDAY THROUGH 0000Z
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR EMMET COUNTY WHERE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BANDING EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY WILL START
THE WATCH THERE AT 1800Z.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STARTING MONDAY: SHIFTING WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY MORNING'S CLIPPER PASSAGE EXPECTED TO SEND TEMPERATURES ON A
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY...FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15 TO -25F NORTHERN
LOWER...-20 TO -30F EASTERN UPPER). SINGLE DIGITS HIGHS LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TUESDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS-20S...AND THE DROP AGAIN BACK INTO THE TEENS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND NEXT WEEKEND COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE COLDEST
PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME IFR VISBYS/CIGS AT MBL AND APN THRU 10Z;
NOT IMPOSSIBLE A MORE ROBUST BAND DEVELOPS BUT HAVE SUSPICIONS THIS
COULD BE CLOSER TO GLR/TVC/CVX. OTHERWISE RETURN TO MVFR/VFR UNTIL
CIGS AND VISBYS DROP TO IFR AGAIN AFTER 12-15Z, ESP NEAR LAKE MI.
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT BURST OF ROBUST SNOW/LOWER VISBYS (IFR) AGAIN
AROUND 15-21Z FROM MBL TO PLN...THEN BROADER AREA OF SNOW TO MOVE IN
NEAR 21-0Z AHEAD OF A FRONT. LIGHT/NEBULOUS WINDS TONIGHT, WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE AT MBL, TVC IN PARTICULAR...THEN STRENGTHEN 5-
10KTS FROM THE SSE TO SW THRU 18-21Z, MORE SW TOWARD 21-0Z, AND
COULD BE CLOSER TO 10-15KTS NEAR MBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ020-021-
025-026-031-099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ020-021-025>027-031-032-099.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ323-342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FEF
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