430
FXUS63 KAPX 180928
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST BEGINNING TONIGHT/ MONDAY
MORNING.
- COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
AN ARCTIC DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
BOTH ENHANCED LAKE RESPONSE AND A NOTABLE SURGE OF COLDER AIR
LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW EARLY TODAY REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER, BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS REGION AS FLOW
CONTINUES TO VEER. COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE DESPITE THE
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LAKE ENHANCED AREAS.
SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES, ALLOWING SNOW TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING A QUICK WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE LATE TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BEGINNING MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR FULLY OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE TEENS FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIRMASS
DEEPENS, WITH PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAVORED BELTS, EVEN
PUSHING FURTHER INLAND WITH STRONGER WINDS PRESENT. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP AND MOISTURE PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, SNOW CHARACTER WILL TREND LIGHTER AND MORE
POWDERY, LIMITING RATES BUT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH NEAR-WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES, CREATING
DIFFICULT TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH LOWS FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER WITH NORTHERN LOWERS SITTING IN THE LOW TEENS. THE
PATTERN RELAXES SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER MODESTLY INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR RETURNS TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK, DRIVEN BY LINGERING
LAKE PROCESSES AND PASSING DISTURBANCES, MAINTAINING A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND WINTRY PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME IFR VISBYS/CIGS AT MBL AND APN THRU 10Z;
NOT IMPOSSIBLE A MORE ROBUST BAND DEVELOPS BUT HAVE SUSPICIONS THIS
COULD BE CLOSER TO GLR/TVC/CVX. OTHERWISE RETURN TO MVFR/VFR UNTIL
CIGS AND VISBYS DROP TO IFR AGAIN AFTER 12-15Z, ESP NEAR LAKE MI.
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT BURST OF ROBUST SNOW/LOWER VISBYS (IFR) AGAIN
AROUND 15-21Z FROM MBL TO PLN...THEN BROADER AREA OF SNOW TO MOVE IN
NEAR 21-0Z AHEAD OF A FRONT. LIGHT/NEBULOUS WINDS TONIGHT, WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE AT MBL, TVC IN PARTICULAR...THEN STRENGTHEN 5-
10KTS FROM THE SSE TO SW THRU 18-21Z, MORE SW TOWARD 21-0Z, AND
COULD BE CLOSER TO 10-15KTS NEAR MBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ016-020>022-025>027-031-032-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ017-028-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ086-087-095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...FEF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page