205
FXUS63 KAPX 182043
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EVOLVING HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE COLD.
- COLDEST AIR OF THIS OUTBREAK MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION/
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA THIS SUNDAY. TROUGH IS
BEING REINFORCED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION...ONE WAVE OVER MISSOURI AND A SECOND OVER MINNESOTA.
NARROW STRONGLY -EPO RIDGE (+3 SIGMA 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES) ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE FLOODGATES FOR COLD
AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CONUS. BEHIND THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR (SUB -20C 850MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO). AT THE SURFACE WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE
(1016MB) NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH LURKING OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA.
NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN SIGHT WITH THE
NORTH AMERICAN ANCHOR TROUGH HOLDING FIRM...WITH SUB-510DAM 500MB
HEIGHTS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM FOR THE DATE IN THE
APX/SSM RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. A COLD PATTERN FOR SURE WITH SOME WAXING
AND WANING OF THE MAGNITUDE OVER THE COMING WEEK BUT TRENDS STILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD SURGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPSTREAM
CLIPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS SURFACE TROUGH OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN CONSOLIDATES INTO A SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR (WONDER HOW MUCH OF THAT IS DIABATICALLY
DRIVEN...WHICH IS MORE OF A NERDY DEEP DIVE INTO THIS SYSTEM).
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ARCTIC HIGH
DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS WILL RAMP THE WINDS UP ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO DRAG SUB-500DAM
THICKNESSES INTO MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN (SUB-492DAM ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH IS A SOLID SIGNAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME HIGHS WITH
LAKE SUPERIOR THE ONLY THING PREVENTING HIGHS BELOW ZERO). WEAK LEE
SIDE LOW PASSING IN THE VICINITY FOR WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE SOMETHING
OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTER COLD AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. BUT
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY...AND A REINFORCING SHOT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH TRENDS
STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS EVENT ARRIVES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH PROBABILITIES >40% OF SUB-ZERO HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
EVOLVING HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING: WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ALREADY ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON...A COMBINATION OF QG FORCING/WEAK STATIC STABILITY FROM
ROUGHLY 800-600MB ALONG WITH SOME LAKE CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER SPINNING ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD EVENING...BUT
IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT A BETTER FOCUS FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE
MICHIGAN CONVECTION INTO MACKINAC COUNTY...PERHAPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EMMET AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES AS WELL. THERE ALSO MAY BE
THE TAIL END OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY THAT CLIPS DRUMMOND ISLAND...NOT THAT WE'LL SEE
IT ON RADAR BUT THERE IS AN ENHANCED RESPONSE ONGOING TO LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
OVERSPREADS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEST SNOWFALL RATES AGAIN
EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND ESPECIALLY FOCUSED
ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY AND AROUND TO AREAS ADJACENT TO LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY. EVOLUTION OF THE SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING LOOKS PRETTY
INTERESTING...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. THINK THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED BAND ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LIKE A SNOW SQUALL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY MORE TRADITIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE CONVECTION WITH SOME DOMINANT BANDS EMBEDDED
WITHIN. IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO START WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 600MB... THOUGH SHIFTING WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY PREVENT BANDS FROM FOCUSING ON ANY ONE AREA (SUCH AS
STARTING AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND LIFTING TOWARD AREAS BETWEEN
GRAND TRAVERSE AND LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY). THIS WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO
GET LAKE SUPERIOR CONVECTION INTO EASTERN UPPER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND LOW LEVEL LAKE INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS AS COLD AIR
SPILLS AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY GET A DOMINANT BAND
GOING INTO EASTERN UPPER BY LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT (AND LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A THREE LAKE BAND THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO. OVER TIME THIS BAND MAY
GET PUSHED FARTHER WEST AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE FLOW/ DENSITY CURRENT
OUT OF ONTARIO WILL LIKELY TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS (WHICH WOULD TANK TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO -
10F IF THAT SCENARIO COMES TO PASS). OFF LAKE MICHIGAN 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -24C IS GOING TO START TO IMPACT
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES...WITH THE DGZ NON-EXISTENT WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER AND LOSS OF THE LONGER EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO AFTER ALL THAT...36 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE 6-10+ INCHES ACROSS THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNING COUNTIES...WILL ADD MISSAUKEE COUNTY TO THE WARNING AS THIS
SHOULD BE A GOOD SET UP FOR THEM. WILL LEAVE CRAWFORD/ROSCOMMON IN
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT ROSCOMMON GETTING IN
ON THE ACT AS WELL. WILL ALSO LEAVE CHEBOYGAN COUNTY ALONE THOUGH
CONCERNED THAT WITH INCREASING ICE COVER WEST OF THE STRAITS THIS
WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THERE. AS FOR
EASTERN UPPER DEFINITELY HAVE CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST WESTERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY THAT THEY COULD GET A GOOD DUMPING OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. DID
SOUND OUT MQT ABOUT THE IDEA OF UPGRADING THEIR ADVISORY TO A
WARNING BUT HELD OFF (THIS MAY BE DONE BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT).
AND NOT TO FORGET: WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AFTER 0900Z MONDAY...AND RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING.
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE WHERE
GUSTS OVER 40MPH EXPECTED...GENERALLY 25 TO 35MPH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER AND 20 TO 30MPH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE M-33. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER COLD ADVECTION.
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE
COLD: ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW EVENT THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDEST AIR OF THIS OUTBREAK MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY/SATURDAY: 850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -30C EXPECTED TO REACH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN BY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND FORECAST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES BELOW 486DAM
WOULD BE JUST A BRUTAL AIR MASS TO DEAL WITH NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW ZERO HIGH
TEMPERATURES (40% FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...60% SATURDAY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND 40+% HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER). ALREADY
HAVE SOME STATEWIDE MESSAGING ON THIS BUT THIS WOULD BE BY FAR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. OF COURSE IT WILL SNOW WITH THIS AS WELL
BUT WITH THOSE 850MB TEMPERATURES A LOT OF IT WILL FALL AS PIXIE
DUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC CIG DROPS TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHSN CONTINUE TO DEPART FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL -SN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, CAUSING BLSN MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES. VISBY'S WILL DROP TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT TIMES
FOR KPLN, KTVC, AND KMBL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ016-020>022-025>027-031>033-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ017-028-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ086-087-095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...SJC
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