507
FXUS63 KAPX 190741
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
241 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW OVER NL MI THIS MORNING, AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY
- STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATUERS WILL RESULT IN COLD WIND
CHILLS TODAY AND TONIGHT
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNS EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE SNOW
BELTS
- CHANCES HOLD FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
CURRENTLY WV SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS DEPICTING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH EMBEDDED LAKE
ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW NEAR LEELANAU REACHING INLAND
TOWARDS I-75. A WEAK OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS MERGING WITH SOME
MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL U.P..
THIS IS RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE FEATURE (NOW AT 1001 MB)
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR. AT THE SAME TIME, A
1040MB SURFACE HIGH OVER MT/ND IS SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS, WITH
THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MOVING OVER IL AND AN OCCLUDED OVER
EASTERN WI REACHING INTO THE MERGING SURFACE FEATURES OVER LK
SUPERIOR. THE FEATURES CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST IN STRENGTH WHILE INDEPENDENT, BUT
TOGETHER WILL WORK TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH WILL AID IN
THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH, TIGHTENING GRADIENTS
AND RESULTING IN WINDS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
TREKS ACROSS NW LOWER MID MORNING. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
TO 35 MPH BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY REACHES THE
SUNRISE SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY, ESPECAILLY AS IT MOVES OVER NW
LOWER. A FEW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FORM IN ITS
WAKE. WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND LIFT WITHIN A
SATURATED DGZ. MORE ROBUST SNOW PRODUCTION PROFILES EXIST OVER
NW LOWER, AS THE WARMER LAKE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FLUX
BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE FARTHER FROM LK MI ONE GETS.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WIND FIELDS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT HEAVY
BANDS AS FAR INLAND AS REACHING SAGINAW BAY. THE FOCUS OF THE
TYPICAL NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL BE OVER NW LOWER
SNOWBELTS (BIG 5), WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT MORE NUMEROUS BANDS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF NW LOWER. NONETHELESS, STRONG WINDS AND
TIMES OF HEAVY SNOW (1-2"/HR) WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO POOR
VISIBILITIES. QUICK ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SLICK CONDITIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. STRONG WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO COLD WIND CHILLS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH MOST SPOTS REMAINING BELOW 0 WIND CHILL.
AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS, WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO AREAS CLOSER TO
THE TIP OF THE MITT. INTENSITIES OF BANDS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
WEAKENING, AS DRY AND COLD AIR SETTLES IN AND WINDS WEAKEN,
HOWEVER A FOCUSED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OFF OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND COULD BREIFLY SPARK UP THE LAKE EFFECT
ENGINE WHILE WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN, CHANCES FOR LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER LK SUPERIOR/THE U.P. THERE IS
ALSO GOOD CHANCES FOR DRAINAGE FLOW FROM THE CAN SHIELD TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS RESULTS IN A LIKELY
CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF CHIPPEWA
COUNTY WELL INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT (AND LIKELY TOMORROW
MORNING). AT THIS TIME, BETTER CONFIDENCE LIES IN AN INTENSE
BAND RESIDING OVER (OR AT LEAST NEAR) WHITEFISH POINT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, LESS CONFIDENCE IS IN THAT BAND EXTENDING INTO THE SOO.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG ENOUGH SURGE OF DRAINAGE FLOW WINDS TO
KEEP THE SNOW FUNNELING AWAY FROM THE SOO, HOWEVER ANY LITTLE
CHANGES IN WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP COULD LEAD IT RIGHT INTO
THE SOO. FOR NOW, CHANCES OF THAT REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
TUESDAY, ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THE CAN/US PLAINS AND
REINFORCE DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA. SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN, HOWEVER SNOW SHOULD BE TRENDING
LIGHTER OR EVEN ENDING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
IN THE SURFACE HIGH'S WAKE, LEE SIDE TROUGHING NEAR SD/NE WILL RETURN
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS WILL STEER THIS SURFACE CYCLONE TOWARDS IA AND THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW REMAINS 1009 MB AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
MI. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK, WHICH WILL
DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE FGEN BOUNDARY WILL BE. AT THIS
TIME, ENSEMBLES FAVOR KEEPING THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CWA
(MORE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOWER PENISULA).
WEST WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SURFACE CYCLONE LATE WEDNESDAY,
USHERING IN MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR TYPICAL SNOWBELT LOCATIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD CONDITIONS
SEEPING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. A 1040 (MAYBE 1050MB)
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THE CAN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY RIGHT FOR
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WOULD BRING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH LREF PROBS SHOWING +90% CHANCES FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE SEEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW 0F
(80% CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
STILL EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU FROM NW TO SE, STARTING
AROUND 10-11Z FOR CIU AND TO MBL/TVC AROUND 12-14Z; APN LIKELY
CLOSER TO 15Z. EXPECT A BURST OF IFR/LIFR VISBYS WITHIN AN HOUR OR
TWO OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN TURNING TO MORE STANDARD, FOCUSED,
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS...NW/NNW FLOW AROUND 18Z BECOMING WNW
AROUND 21Z AND BEYOND. TVC COULD FLIRT WITH ONE OF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOW BANDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE
IFR PREVAILS GIVEN BLSN BUT MVFR POSSIBLE AWAY FROM TYPICAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS (ESP APN). W/SW WINDS 10-15KTS TONIGHT TURN TO W AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND THEN NW/NNW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND, STRENGTHENING
DRAMATICALLY -- 10-20+KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING 30-40KTS OR BETTER, ESP
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY/STRONG
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ016-020>022-
025>027-031>033-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ017-018-023-028-029-034-035-041.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ022-027>030-032>036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ086.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095-096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ087-088-
095-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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