619
FXUS63 KAPX 201734
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1234 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN AS WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN LESS
THAN 0F FOR EASTERN UPPER AND INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER
FOR MOST OF TODAY
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND REFOCUS UNDER
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW RETURNS TO NORTHERN LOWER
AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER EARLY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES FOR MOST
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SEEP
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICT STATE WIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, WITH A NOTABLE AREA
OF HEAVY SNOW OVER WHITEFISH POINT. AN UPPER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IS ROTATING THROUGH, WHICH IS GIVING A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO
SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED IN, AND PER
THE 00Z KAPX RAOB THE DGZ IS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE. THIS HAS LED
TO SMALLER FLAKES, ALTHOUGH AREAS WEST OF I-75 LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE MORE DGZ DEPTH TO WORK WITH (RESULTING IN BETTER SNOW
FLAKE GROWTH). GENERALLY WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE (SW IN
EASTERN U.P.), WITH SOME SITES SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -3 ARE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER. COLD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TODAY AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SW AND REMAIN ELEVATED.
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING REACHING UP TO THE GULF OF AK IS HUGGING THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST TODAY, OTHERWISE LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS AND CAN. THE UPPER RIDGING
WILL START TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK, HOWEVER INFLUENCES FROM THIS
ANCHORED UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND -
KEEPING COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
TODAY: A ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
SE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALIGN THE GRADIENT IN SUCH A WAY TO SHIFT
SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY. BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS, MOST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NL) WILL
BECOME LIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ORIENTATED SW
TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL
ALSO MOVE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW NEAR WHITEFISH POINT OFF SHORE
TO THE NORTH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
RACE DOWN THE CAN FRONT RANGE AND MEET WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEAR SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TREND DEEPER AS
IT TREKS EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE
FEATURE, HOWEVER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
SOME FGEN ACTION COULD BE SEEN WHILE IT IS WEST OF LK MI, BUT
ONCE THE ~1015 MB SURFACE LOW REACHES THE RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WARMER LAKES (LEFTOVERS FROM THE EVADING COLDER
AIRMASS) IT WILL REORGANIZE.
ADVECTED MOISTURE WILL HELP ENHANCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW NEAR COASTAL LK MI AREAS INCLUDING BEAVER ISLAND AND
FAR SE CHIPPEWA CO.
WEDNESDAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER
NORTHERN LOWER AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. SOME MORE IDEAL JET
DYNAMICS LAND OVER NL AS WELL AS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH
FEATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, WHEN JOINED OVER MI IT WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD 1 - 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NL FALLING ON WEDNESDAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENTS,
EITHER IN THE TYPICAL SENSE OR IN MESOSCALE INTERACTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. LATER IN THE
DAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE DOWN THE CAN PLAINS
TOWARDS WI. THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIKELY INTERACT/MERGE WITH A
LAKE LOW OVER LK SUPERIOR. WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE FEATURES
INTERACTING AROUND THE WARMER LAKES, LATER WEDNESDAY COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW FOR SOME WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LAST CLIPPER WILL WORK MOVE A
REORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUING TO RESULT FROM LAKE INTERACTIONS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES.
AT THIS TIME, SNOW WILL TREND MORE WEST WIND LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN
LATER THURSDAY AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE BACK IN AS WELL
WITH THE EXITING CYCLONE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS MN
TOWARDS THE U.P. THIS, AND THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW
DESCENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MI, WILL WORK TO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS VERY DEEP CLOSED LOW DESCENDING SOUTHWARD
WILL ALLOW A ALMOST 1050MB SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS WILL HUG THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH
SKIES LIKELY CLEARING FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT, WITH 60% CHANCES THAT HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS OF NL REMAIN
BELOW 0F ALL DAY FRIDAY. IF THE SURFACE HIGH CAN TRACK OVER MI (WITH
ENSEMBLES FAVOR AT THIS POINT) CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, SNOW PACK,
AND A COLD DENSE AIRMASS WILL ALL ALLOW FOR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO
TANK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE PEAK OF THE COLD, THE AIRMASS WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO EVADE..
MEANING SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WSW FLOW LAKE EFFECT BANDS REMAIN A NUISANCE THIS AFTERNOON,
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS MCD AND POSSIBLY CIU...BUT THINK THESE WILL
TAPER OFF A BIT AFTER 18-20Z...AND LOW CHANCE FOR ANYTHING AT APN.
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF BANDS BUT IFR EXPECTED BENEATH BANDS,
ESP WITH BLSN...AND LIFR POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIEST ONES (CONCERN FOR
PLN). TONIGHT...THINGS MAY NOT ENTIRELY QUIET DOWN BEFORE NEXT BATCH
OF SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 9-12Z WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS. WINDS TODAY REMAIN 15-20KTS GUSTING
25-30KTS FROM THE W/WSW, ONLY SLOWLY TAPERING INTO TONIGHT. STILL
UNCLEAR ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE BUT EXPECT WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY AM
TO GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE, BECOMING SW AGAIN BEHIND FRONT
NEAR 18Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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