272
FXUS63 KAPX 201930
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
230 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TONIGHT, MAINLY EASTERN U.P.
AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS.
- LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
(COLDEST FRIDAY-SATURDAY).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD TROUGHING ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS/CLIPPERS SET TO
CROSS NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
PROCESS OF REORIENTING THEMSELVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK. A LOCALIZED
0.5" OR SO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING,
BUT WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GIVEN CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW. BY LATER TONIGHT FOCUS TURNS TO
AN INCOMING WAVE SET TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOCALLY, THE BULK OF SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 15Z WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF M-72 AND A GENERAL 1-2"
SOUTH OF THERE. PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3" IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCEMENT AREAS FROM MANISTEE UP THE COAST TO
CROSS VILLAGE.
HOT ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES ANOTHER CLIPPER SET TO ARRIVE
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
BOOST IN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS,
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE TYPICAL WEST FLOW SNOW BELTS. SOME LOCALIZED 2-
5" AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS CURRENTLY
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING, MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS
CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN U.P. AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER --
LIKELY STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
INT HE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH STILL MADE TO
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
NO SIGNS OF WINTER SLOWING DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF ACCUMULATION FAVORED IN WEST-
NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS -- ALTHOUGH GROWING ICE COVER
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INCOMING COLD RESULTING IN VERY
SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE LIKELY LIMIT THIS TO SOME EXTENT. THE BIGGER
STORY LIKELY TO REVOLVE AROUND THAT NEXT SHOT OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. H8 TEMPS PROGGED
AS COLD AS AROUND -28 C -- SOME 2 TO 3 SD BELOW THE LATE JANUARY
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW
ZERO AREA-WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING RANGING TO -15
TO -25 F. SIMILAR WIND CHILLS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SOME "MODERATION" FOR SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SINGLE
DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TRENDS SUPPORT THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR BREAKING
DOWN. WHILE STILL COLD, SUPPOSE A RELATIVE "WARMING" TREND WILL BE
WELCOMED BY MANY. HIGHS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WSW FLOW LAKE EFFECT BANDS REMAIN A NUISANCE THIS AFTERNOON,
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS MCD AND POSSIBLY CIU...BUT THINK THESE WILL
TAPER OFF A BIT AFTER 18-20Z...AND LOW CHANCE FOR ANYTHING AT APN.
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF BANDS BUT IFR EXPECTED BENEATH BANDS,
ESP WITH BLSN...AND LIFR POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIEST ONES (CONCERN FOR
PLN). TONIGHT...THINGS MAY NOT ENTIRELY QUIET DOWN BEFORE NEXT BATCH
OF SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 9-12Z WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS. WINDS TODAY REMAIN 15-20KTS GUSTING
25-30KTS FROM THE W/WSW, ONLY SLOWLY TAPERING INTO TONIGHT. STILL
UNCLEAR ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE BUT EXPECT WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY AM
TO GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE, BECOMING SW AGAIN BEHIND FRONT
NEAR 18Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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