724
FXUS63 KAPX 202332
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
632 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TONIGHT, MAINLY EASTERN U.P.
AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS.
- LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
(COLDEST FRIDAY-SATURDAY).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD TROUGHING ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS/CLIPPERS SET TO
CROSS NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
PROCESS OF REORIENTING THEMSELVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK. A LOCALIZED
0.5" OR SO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING,
BUT WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GIVEN CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW. BY LATER TONIGHT FOCUS TURNS TO
AN INCOMING WAVE SET TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOCALLY, THE BULK OF SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 15Z WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF M-72 AND A GENERAL 1-2"
SOUTH OF THERE. PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3" IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCEMENT AREAS FROM MANISTEE UP THE COAST TO
CROSS VILLAGE.
HOT ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES ANOTHER CLIPPER SET TO ARRIVE
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
BOOST IN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS,
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE TYPICAL WEST FLOW SNOW BELTS. SOME LOCALIZED 2-
5" AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS CURRENTLY
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING, MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS
CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN U.P. AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER --
LIKELY STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH STILL MADE TO
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
NO SIGNS OF WINTER SLOWING DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF ACCUMULATION FAVORED IN WEST-
NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS -- ALTHOUGH GROWING ICE COVER
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND INCOMING COLD RESULTING IN VERY
SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE LIKELY LIMITS THIS TO SOME EXTENT. THE
BIGGER STORY LIKELY TO REVOLVE AROUND THAT NEXT SHOT OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. H8
TEMPS PROGGED AS COLD AS AROUND -28 C -- SOME 2 TO 3 SD BELOW THE
LATE JANUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS LIKELY
TO FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING RANGING TO -15 TO -25 F. SIMILAR WIND CHILLS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH
ABOVE THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SOME "MODERATION" FOR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW
ZERO.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TRENDS SUPPORT THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR BREAKING
DOWN. WHILE STILL COLD, SUPPOSE A RELATIVE "WARMING" TREND WILL BE
WELCOMED BY MANY. HIGHS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF VFR CIGS & VSBYS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT FOR SOME, LARGELY MVFR CIGS (015-030) TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. -SHSN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT IN THE SNOW
BELTS, BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF -SN/-SHSN LATER TONIGHT INTO
PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY. VSBYS DROP TO 1-3SM MAINLY WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT -SN, GENERALLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER FROM ~09Z THROUGH 18Z, WITH -SHSN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD
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