358
FXUS63 KAPX 220440
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1140 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES AT TIMES THIS EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AT TIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT - SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER MN/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME THE FOCUS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
LOCALLY. BEYOND THIS, SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH SATURDAY -- LIKELY
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: LINGERING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNING'S
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS -- PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE SITS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE FEATURE QUICKLY RACE EAST INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING, ULTIMATELY PROVIDING AN UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THE
BULK OF STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SYNOPTICALLY AIDED SNOW LIKELY TO EXIT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MI BY 07-08Z TONIGHT. GREATEST SNOW ACCUM. EARLY
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY HIGHEST NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CADILLAC TO CHEBOYGAN -- ON THE ORDER OF 1-3", ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4" NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF SOUTHERN EMMET, CHARLEVOIX, ANTRIM AND WESTERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES. WINDS DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS EVENING, BUT PEAK LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY -- AS HIGH AS 30 MPH DURING THAT LATTER TIME
FRAME.
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT
EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. MOST NUMEROUS/HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO FLARE UP MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THURSDAY ON THE ORDER OF 1-3" ACROSS
THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST LOWER SNOW BELTS, PERHAPS UP TO 3-3.5" FOR FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH BAY. AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH SNOWFLAKE SIZE EXPECTED TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SMALLER WITH TIME AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN, AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
IN COORDINATION WITH GRR, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS AREN'T
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING/BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
LEADING TO POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND INCOMING SHOT OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND
CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL
CLOSE TO -30 C FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY EVENING PLUNGE BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 0 F TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AREA-WIDE BEFORE WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY'S HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10
F. ALL OF THIS MADE TO FEEL COLDER BY EVEN A LITTLE WIND, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY TIME FRAME. LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT COLDEST WIND CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (INCLUDING THE
EARLY MORNING COMMUTE/BUS STOP TIME) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT --
ANYWHERE FROM -15 TO -30 F.
OTHERWISE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, ALBEIT IN DIMINISHING FASHION. SOME IMPACT MAY CONTINUE
THOUGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED SMALL FLAKE SIZE/PIXIE DUST RESULTING IN
LOW VISIBILITIES WHERE IT DOES SNOW. WATCHING A COUPLE POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCES FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAMES
THAT MAY BRING MORE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THESE WAVES EVOLVE
AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LATE WEEK/WEEKEND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
MIXTURE OF LOWER END VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. MOST
NUMEROUS MVFR PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
UNDER PASSING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF A
FEW INCHES BY THE LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION, PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025>027-031-032-086-099.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MSB
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