727
FXUS63 KAPX 221139
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
IN THE SNOWBELTS.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT TO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
COLD UPPER LOW, NEAR THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER, WILL MOVE SE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
SUPERIOR, AND WILL BE BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND GEORGIAN BAY BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EXIT NORTHERN MI TO THE
EAST BEFORE DAWN. TRAILING RIPPLES IN THE FAST UPPER FLOW
TODAY/TONIGHT LOOK TO BE WEAKER THAN THIS EXITING WAVE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERLAKE INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. BUT THAT CAN ONLY HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE SO
MUCH.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY, THERE IS A BRIEF TONGUE
OF WARMER 850MB AIR SKIRTING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REAL, CRUSHING COLD ADVECTION IS TONIGHT, WITH
850MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO THE UPPER MINUS 20S TO AROUND -30C. THE 1000-
850MB FETCH IS FAIRLY STABLE FROM THE WEST TODAY, WITH A BIT OF
VEERING IN THE AFTERNOON ON EASTERN SUPERIOR. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE, LAKE SNOWS INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MI SEEM TO ALREADY BE DECREASING COMPARED TO LATE EVENING. LOWER-END
LAKE EFFECT ACCUMS ARE PLANNED FOR TODAY, WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
POST-SHORTWAVE, AND A SHORTER FETCH THAN ON SUPERIOR. A BROAD 1-2"
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY IN NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI, WITH SOME
LOCAL 3"-ISH POSSIBLE. WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO CIRCA
30MPH, THE FALLING/BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS. NW CHIPPEWA CO WILL DO BETTER TODAY, WITH A
LONGER FETCH AND MORE 1000MB CONVERGENCE PROGGED AT THE EAST
TIP OF THE LAKE. ACCUMS OF 2-6" POSSIBLE NEAR/N OF PARADISE.
TONIGHT, WE VEER TO A WOBBLY WNW TO NW FETCH. SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HINDERED BY A LACK OF USABLE DGZ. AND LAKE
EFFECT INTENSITY WILL ALSO BE HINDERED BY WHAT IS A CONTINUED
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. A BROAD 1-2" WITH SOME LOCAL 3" IN NW/N
CENTRAL LOWER MI AGAIN TONIGHT. 1-4" IN WESTERN CHIP AND WESTERN
MACK COS IN THE EASTERN UP, AS THE VEERED WINDS PUSH BANDS
FURTHER INLAND.
MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE TEENS. READINGS TUMBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
LATE. SINGLE-DIGIT SUB-ZERO READINGS MOST EVERYWHERE, AS COLD AS
AROUND -10F AT THE SAULT. WIND CHILLS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BELOW.
VERY, VERY COLD.
AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. THESE ADVISORIES START THIS EVENING IN
BOTH PENINSULAS (A LITTLE SOONER IN NORTHERN LOWER MI) AND RUN THRU
MIDDAYISH SATURDAY (A LITTLE LATER IN EASTERN UPPER).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
LEAD UPPER LOW DOES DEPART EASTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY
QUIET ZONAL FLOW IS LEFT BEHIND, IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER
NE NA. WE EVENTUALLY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROF THAT CROSSES US SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THAT APPEARS TO ONLY BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PROMINENT
CLIPPER WAVES THAT WILL HELP REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN THE
REGION.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY, DWINDLING AFTER THAT FOR A BIT. ACCUMS WILL BE SMALL, BUT
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE VERY SMALL, WITH SHARPLY LOWERED VSBYS AT TIMES,
AND POTENTIAL BLOWING/DRIFTING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE FORECAST, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY, AND PERHAPS MIDWEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY RANGE FROM NEAR 0 IN EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MI, TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ELSEWHERE. LOWS
5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM LAKE MI FRI NIGHT. SAT-SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
SEE SLIGHT REBOUNDS IN TEMPS EACH PERIOD, BUT STILL OBVIOUSLY VERY
COLD. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS HOLD FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW. MOST SITES
WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR TO IFR AT TIMES THOUGH THINK IFR AT APN
WILL BE UNCOMMON. CIU IS AN EXCEPTION, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR ALSO MOVES IN
TONIGHT, WITH SUB ZERO TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. BRISK W TO WNW WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
017-020>022-025>027-031-032-099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ086.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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