796
FXUS63 KAPX 230439
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1139 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH READINGS AS COLD AS -30 F.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
VERY STRONG TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS FAR TO
OUR NORTHEAST, IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
FACT, NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE FORECASTS FOR SURFACE PRESSURE LIE ABOVE THE MAX FOR ALL
HOURS -- MEANING THAT FOR A THREE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD CENTERED
AROUND LATE THIS WEEK, THE FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE IS ABOVE ALL
VALUES FOR THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM -- WELL ADVERTISED COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON WILL CRASH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO A LARGE SWATH OF
THE COUNTRY -- INCLUDING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COLDER, WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, AND ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS COLDER BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SO FAR
TODAY. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO -20 TO -30 F
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED COLDER
READINGS POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS ARE ALREADY REACHING DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET COLDER. PROBABILISTIC HREF GUIDANCE
BACKS CURRENT THINKING WITH HIGH CHANCES (70%+) FOR WIND CHILLS
COLDER THAN -25 F FOR MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BITTER COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY
AS WIND CHILLS REMAIN BETWEEN -15 AND -25 F DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
LAKESHORES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHEN COMBINED WITH CALMING
WINDS, CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL TANK FOR
MANY PLACES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE, THE LOCALIZED LOW-LYING COLD SPOTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN COULD
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE -20S OR EVEN -30S F AND BREAK
RECORD LOWS AT OBSERVATION SITES.
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT -- LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES WITH TIME FRIDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKENING WINDS. WHILE ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6" CLOSER TO WHITEFISH POINT, HEAVY
EMPHASIS IS PLACED ON SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS PAST 700MB, ALBEIT VERY
COLD, WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WHICH IS ALREADY BEING SEEN IN LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. SLRS
NEAR 10:1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENTIRE PROFILE WILL BE COLDER THAN
THE DGZ. GIVEN RELATIVELY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY, SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH, AND SMALL FLAKE
SIZES, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OPEN AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY LACK OF EFFECTIVE ROAD TREATMENT GIVEN AIR
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING
LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS -- COMBINING IMPRESSIVE
FORCING ALOFT TO DEEPEN A CYCLONE THAT WILL TREK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AGAIN THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING AS IT CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTINENT.
FORECAST DETAILS:
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE RISING BACK CLOSE TO ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE -- IF NOT
SHOVED OUT OVER THE LAKES DUE TO LAND BREEZE FORMATION. RELATIVELY
SPEAKING, OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY COME ON
SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES CLOSE TO SAGINAW BAY. WHILE
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE PEGS THIS AREA FOR ~20% OR LESS CHANCE
FOR SEEING AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS RECENTLY TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. EXPECTED CHANGES IN FORECAST
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTRICATE JUGGLE OF FORCING PROVIDED BY TWO
SEPARATE WAVES COMBINING IN THE DAYS AHEAD. LOOKING MORE BROADLY AT
NEXT WEEK, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE END OF THE ISSUANCE PERIOD AS COLD AIR STICKS AROUND THE
REGION. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BELOW ZERO WILL KEEP READINGS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH FOR MUCH OF TODAY, WITH RAPIDLY
CHANGING VIS AND CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN KAPN AND
KPLN (WHICH SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY VFR). MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TARGET KTVC AND KMBL, WITH THESE LOCATIONS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING FREQUENT DIPS TO IFR UNDER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. COULD ALSO SEE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KCIU
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBAND TRAVERSES THE
AIRPORT. GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THIS MORNING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND
CIGS/VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY HEADING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025>027-031-032-086-099.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ023-028-
029-033-034.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB
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