673
FXUS63 KAPX 230742
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
242 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 0F. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 35
MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER, RESULTING IN AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES AND TIMES OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER BANDS
- VERY COLD CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT UNDER CALM WINDS, WITH A 40%
CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS OF AT LEAST -15F OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER AND 80% CHANCES OF AT LEAS -15F FOR
CHIPPEWA CO (INCLUDING THE SOO)
- SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES ARRIVES SUNDAY, HOWEVER HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER WEATHER LINGERS
MOST OF THE WEEK. GROWING ICE COVER WILL DETERMINE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
CURRENTLY A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH ALMOST 1050MB SURFACE PRESSURE IN WILLISTON, ND. THE KMPX RAOB
MEASURED -33F AT 850MB WHICH IS THE 11TH COLDEST MEASURED ON RECORD.
AS THIS AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY, GRADIENTS
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER MI. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS CREEPS IN.
A DEEP 494DAM 500 MB UPPER CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY BOTTOMING
OUT OVER LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS IS PROVIDING
IDEAL DYNAMICS TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS MORNING, TAKING AWAY
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND GRADUALLY RELAXING GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, MID MORNING HOURS TO
EARLY AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE COLDER 850MB TEMPS SLIDING SOUTH BEHIND THE EVADING
UPPER LOW. WITH THIS, A FEW SPOTS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ARE
POSSIBLE, ONE NEAR WHITEFISH BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE BIG 5 IN
NORTHERN LOWER. THESE SPOTS OF CONVERGENCE ARE INTERESTING, AS
THEY ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF WIND VEERING QUICKER OVER ICE
COVERED SPOTS OF WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LK MI (NORTH OF
BEAVER ISLAND). ALSO DURING THIS TIME, THE COLDER AIRMASS IS
STARTING TO TAKE OVER. THE DGZ ISN'T EVEN REACHING THE CLOUD
BASE ON SOME SOUNDINGS BY LATE MORNING. NW WINDS AND THE WARM
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF PLATES OR COLUMNS (CHANCES INCREASING FOR MOSTLY COLUMNS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT). THIS MEANS VERY FINE LOOKING SNOW,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVERGENCE SPOTS). AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE TO
VERY SMALL FLAKES, WITH LOW VISIBILITIES BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER THE STATE
TONIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN MN/WI. AS GRADIENTS RELAX ENOUGH TO CALM WINDS, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
FEATURES. THERE REMAINS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE
CAN SHIELD ENHANCING A CONVERGENCE AREA AS IT MEETS WITH SOME LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND BAY. OTHER CONVERGENCE
BANDS WILL ALSO LIKELY SET UP AS LAND BREEZES ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LAND BREEZES WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
MUCH OUR INTERIOR LOCATIONS CAN COOL. I WILL FIRST SAY THAT DUE TO
THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0F (FOR THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES NOT
WIND CHILL). HOWEVER, SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY NOT BE
RIGHT OVER HEAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS COULD
STILL REMAIN AT 3 TO 7 MPH. ALSO, SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
SATURATION TRAPPED UNDER THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION, WHICH EXPLAINS
WHY THERE IS 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER OF AT LEAST 30% FOR NE
LOWER (WHERE THE BEST CHANCES EXIST FOR CLEAR SKIES). HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO START TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 4 AM AS
WELL. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO
START DROPPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
DRAINAGE OFF THE CAN SHIELD INCREASED CHANCES DRAMATICALLY FOR
CHIPPEWA CO TO DROP TO -15F OR BELOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, FOR NORTHERN LOWER - HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
DROP AGGRESSIVELY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD -10 TO 0F WILL LIKELY BE SEEN FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT, WITH THOSE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO -15F OR COLDER. EARLY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURE WILL
GENERALLY LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN INCH UP NEAR SUNRISE AS CLOUD
COVER MOVES IN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS
NORTHERN LOWER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANCES FOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME, BESIDES THE LOW CHANCES OF SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES
DRIFTING ON LAND. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED AS HIGHER PV SURFACES BUILD IN.. RESULTING IN
LITTLE STEERING OF THESE FEATURES AND THE HEAVY RELIANCE ON SMALL
SCALE FEATURES. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING OVER LAND, ITS
WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO MOVE THINGS ONSHORE (EXCEPTION IS WHITEFISH
POINT).
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AND COULD RESULT IN SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHERN LOWER AND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SEEPING INTO EASTERN
UPPER. TOTALS FOR NORTHERN LOWER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW (UNDER A
COUPLE INCHES AT MAX), HOWEVER HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD MOVE
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MONDAY AS UPPER DYNAMICS ASSISTS IN
LIFT.
A COUPLE CLIPPERS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH STARTING EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINING SNOW CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND TONIGHT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH OUT OF THE TEENS ALL WEEK AND OVER NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
DIP NEAR ZERO MOST NIGHTS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CHANCE ARE VERY
HIGH FOR ICE COVER OVER THE LAKES TO GROW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK
OF STRONG SIGNALS FOR GALES OR STRONGER OVER THE WATERS). THESE
CLIPPER MIGHT NOT RESULT IN TOO MUCH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THIS WEEK.
WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THINGS TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH FOR MUCH OF TODAY, WITH RAPIDLY
CHANGING VIS AND CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN KAPN AND
KPLN (WHICH SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY VFR). MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TARGET KTVC AND KMBL, WITH THESE LOCATIONS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING FREQUENT DIPS TO IFR UNDER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. COULD ALSO SEE A WINDOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KCIU
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBAND TRAVERSES THE
AIRPORT. GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THIS MORNING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND
CIGS/VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY HEADING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ016-
017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ023-
028-029-033-034.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
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