348
FXUS63 KAPX 232242
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
542 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- FREQUENT BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL PIVOT
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED IMPRESSIVE JET PUNCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS NEAR 1050MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES.
FORECAST DETAILS:
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS -- SUFFICIENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN PLACE
INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND EVEN GO CALM FOR A
TIME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING WINDS AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH TIME WILL SHRINK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH TIME. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS RELATIVELY LARGE SECTIONS OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY AROUND M-55 AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING ACROSS MANY INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.
WHILE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE REGARDLESS, ANY AREAS THAT
SEE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY TANK
AFTER DARK -- ESPECIALLY LOCALIZED LOW-LYING AREAS. IN SCENARIOS
LIKE THIS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AGGRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW PACK, THE BULK OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE -- AND PERHAPS ALL GUIDANCE -- WILL STRUGGLE APPROPRIATELY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO EVENTUAL OBSERVED LOWS. WHILE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS, OBSERVED AIR
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE -20 F AND EVEN -30 F RANGE OVERNIGHT.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARMER -- ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OR PERHAPS TEENS BELOW ZERO. AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSED, PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN U.P. NEAR
SAULT STE. MARIE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE -20
F RANGE WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ONTARIO.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY -- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING,
MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. WORST CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. A PORTION OF US-2 WEST OF ST.
IGNACE HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THAT AREA. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTENSITY HAS LESSENED SOME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING --
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. DROPS TO 1/4SM
HAVE BEEN FREQUENT AT OBS SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER SO FAR TODAY,
AND ANY OPEN AREAS COULD SEE SIMILAR VISIBILITY DROPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE TEMPERATURE DISCUSSION, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORES THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT
DIMINISHES WITH TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
BROAD RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS IT SLIDES EAST. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH
ALONG THE ROCKIES, EVENTUALLY MERGING AND PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SATURDAY. IMPRESSIVE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MERGING
WAVES WILL STRENGTHEN A LARGE CYCLONE AS IT TREKS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS TO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER SATURDAY MORNING AS CALM
WINDS/PARTIAL CLEARING SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FOR SOME. WHILE THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BEHIND US BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PROLONGED COLD
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS -- EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME.
OTHERWISE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL WANE ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE AND LAND BREEZE FORMATION PUSHING REMAINING
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES. WHILE LOW CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXIST ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH, CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THESE CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
STILL LOOKING AT MVFR TO EVEN IFR PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AT KCIU, KTVC, AND KMBL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INTIAL
IMPROVEMENT AT KCIU LATER THIS EVENING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AT KTVC AND KMBL. CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED AT KPLN AND KAPN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016-
020>022-025>027-031-032-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ086.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB/MJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page