258
FXUS63 KAPX 241131
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-DANGEROUSLY COLD THIS MORNING WITH A "WARMING" TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
-NEXT SNOW CHANCES COURTESY OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY
-WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
CLASSIC ARCTIC OUTBREAK PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS... WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING WELL
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AS AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH HAS OVERTAKEN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM, COMPLETE WITH GREENLAND BLOCKING TO KEEP
THE FLOODGATES TO THE ARCTIC WIDE OPEN. AS SUCH, IMPRESSIVE 1048MB
SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA, USHERING IN A
DOWNRIGHT IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS TO THE GREAT LAKES... COMPLETE
WITH AN OBSERVED 850MB TEMP OF ROUGHLY -28.5 CELSIUS, WHICH IS BELOW
THE 5TH PERCENTILE OF 850MB TEMPS FOR THE DATE. IMPRESSIVE STUFF. AS
SUCH... WITH SUCH COLD AIR, STILL SEEING SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITIES AS DELTA-TS HAVE GONE OFF THE CHARTS... BUT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR, NONE OF THIS MOISTURE OR LIFT IS OCCURRING IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE... SO BASICALLY SEEING BABY POWDER FLYING
AROUND AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE NW LOWER SNOWBELTS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR OUR FRIENDS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. THE
LAKES HAVE "MODERATED" (IF YOU WANT TO EVEN CALL IT THAT) AIR TEMPS
TO NEAR OR A HANDFUL OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
FOR THOSE WHO ARE AWAY FROM THESE LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS... FRESH SNOWPACK AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCES OF LAND
BREEZE DYNAMICS HAS RESULTED IN A SPECTACULAR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP... WITH CADILLAC ALREADY PLUMMETING TO -22F BEFORE 11PM... AND
MANY OTHER SITES DIPPING WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WITH THE
INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE HIGH FLEXING ACROSS THE REGION AND A
SLOWLY LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT... ANTICIPATING LAND-LAKE BREEZE
ELEMENTS TO SUPPRESS ONGOING LAKE EFFECT TO THE SHORES, WHILE
INTERIOR LOCALES CLEAR OUT AND CONTINUE TO SEE EFFICIENT COOLING
COURTESY OF A RICH, FRESH SNOWPACK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY
CONSIDERABLY. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS, THOSE
ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE NW LOWER SNOWBELT AND
ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH LOWER THAN 0
TO -10 FOR THE NIGHT. THOSE ACROSS THE INTERIOR? PENDING ON IF WINDS
CAN COMPLETELY DECOUPLE, OVERNIGHT LOWS PUSHING -30F ARE ON THE
TABLE IN THE COLDEST OF SPOTS... BUT EXPECTING MOST PLACES TO DIP TO
-10 TO -20F BY MORNING. CONSIDERING HOW COLD THINGS ARE, AND WITH
HOW LITTLE WIND IT WILL TAKE TO PRODUCE HIGH IMPACT WIND CHILLS (CAD
HAS ALREADY NOTCHED -30 OR LOWER WIND CHILLS THIS EVENING)... GOTTA
CONTINUE WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN GET HARMFUL IF PROPER
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
FOR SATURDAY, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING THE
LAKESHORES, WITH BANDS SHIFTING AROUND WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SW TO
S THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO A MORE TRANSIENT NATURE TO THE
SNOWBANDS. WITH TINY FLAKES... ACCUMS REMAIN RATHER LIMITED...
PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE LAKESHORES OF
NW LOWER AND UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWS OUT OF THE PICTURE,
WILL BE DROPPING ALL SNOW-RELATED HEADLINES. MOST SPOTS STILL HOLD
QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO, WITH PEEKS OF SUNSHINE LIKELY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
THOSE LOOKING FOR WARMER WEATHER ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT A
WHILE... OR HEAD TO THE SW US, BECAUSE THE ENTIRE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS IS BASICALLY GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A DEEP FREEZE.
CLOSER TO HOME, WE TREND A LITTLE WARMER AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
CORE OF THE COLDER AIR IS DISPATCHED TO OUR EAST AND WE WARM INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS. AS SUCH, NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT FOR SUNDAY
ASIDE FROM THE CHILL... JUST SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. THINGS CHANGE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DELIVERS A ROUND OF SNOW TO
THE REGION. LONGWAVE TROUGHING COURTESY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE FEED OF A DEEP COLD AIRMASS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... ALONG WITH IT,
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES. THAT ALL BEING SAID, THIS RUN OF
COLDER WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE ICE COVER ON THE LAKES, WHICH MAY
MUTE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE FUTURE, WIND DIRECTION
PENDING... SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE EVALUATED ON A DAY-BY-
DAY BASIS TO SEE HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IMPACTED...
BECAUSE I'M HERE TO TELL YA... THE ICE SURE AS HECK ISN'T
MELTING. FOR THE TIME BEING, LONG TERM GUIDANCE ISN'T BUYING
INTO THE IDEA OF OVERLY SUPPRESSED LAKE EFFECT, BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE IN DUE TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
APN WILL BE VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. OTHER SITES ARE
CONTENDING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. MBL IS WORST OFF, WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING. TVC/PLN/CIU SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
FOR PART OF TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
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