430
FXUS63 KAPX 251112
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
612 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
- SNEAKY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOME SHORELINE LOCALES
TONIGHT.
- NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCE BUILDS MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY BEING DISPATCHED TO THE EAST TONIGHT,
AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1042MB IS SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AS SUCH, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
SEE RETURN FLOW MATERIALIZE... BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, LARGELY
CONTENDING WITH LAND-LAKE BREEZE DYNAMICS. WILL SEE ANOTHER PRETTY
COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF BOTH NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED... LOWS POSSIBLY POKING INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS, ESPECIALLY IF RETURN FLOW HOLDS OFF TIL DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER SHOULD MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO. HEADING INTO THE DAY TODAY,
ANTICIPATING THAT MOST SPOTS HOLD LARGELY DRY WITH A FEW FLURRIES.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. AS A
LARGE SYSTEM DELIVERS A WINTRY HAYMAKER FROM DOWNSTATE TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
ABRUPTLY FLIP N TO NNE THROUGH THE DAY... ALBEIT QUITE LIGHT. THIS
WILL DIRECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
AND WHITEFISH POINT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD UNDER AN
INCH THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
SHIELD FROM THAT LARGER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY TRY TO LEAK INTO THE
SAGINAW BAY REGION, WHICH COULD DELIVER A DUSTING OF SNOW TO
GLADWIN, ARENAC, OGEMAW, IOSCO, AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
TONIGHT: A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO KEEP IN MIND FOR TONIGHT IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAND-LAKE CONVERGENT BANDS OF SNOW OVER THE LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CAMS HAVE STARTED TO CREEP IN WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF A SUBTLE SIGNAL SUGGESTING SOME OF THESE MATURE FEATURES
COULD CLIP SOME IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE REGIONS WITH SOME PRETTY STELLAR
SNOWFALL RATES LATER TONIGHT AS THEY ADVECT TOWARD THE COASTS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IN PARTICULAR, CAMS ARE HONING
IN ON THE LEELANAU TO MANISTEE SHORES (PERHAPS CLIPPING GRAND
TRAVERSE), FAR EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
IOSCO COUNTY (OSCODA PROPER), AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONCEPTUALLY,
THIS SOLUTION DOES MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE FLOW REGIMES. CONSIDERING
THE SUBTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS, THIS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
VERY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL IN THE EVENT THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWFALL CAN
CLIP THE SHORELINES. AS OF NOW, NOT ENOUGH TO DIVE INTO HEADLINES
FOR THIS CYCLE... BUT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THESE SNOWS CAN LEAK
INLAND, IT MAY DRUM UP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IF MESOLOW CHARACTERISTICS CAN BE MAINTAINED AS THESE
FEATURES ADVECT TO SHORE. MORE DETAILS TO COME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
COLD-DOMINANT PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
CONSTITUTED BY HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM DELIVER A
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW, POSSIBLY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT, MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE LIMITED TO SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THESE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUESTIONABLE OWING TO EXPECTED EXPANSION
OF ICE COVER ON THE LAKES, WHICH WILL HELP REDUCE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION
FROM THE LAKES, ON TOP OF ALREADY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIMITING
DENDRITIC GROWTH PROCESSES. COLDEST TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK LOOKS
TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
AS WE SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE "WARMTH" TRY TO MATERIALIZE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND... AS HIGHS "TORCH" INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY; MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK
SNEAKS OVERHEAD BUT COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBYS WITH -SN,
ESP AT APN...OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS
BECOMING N/NNW AFTER 18Z. BETTER SHOT AT -SN AND MVFR CIGS/VISBYS
COMES LARGELY AFTER 0Z WITH EXPECTATION OF OFFSHORE LAKE EFFECT
BANDS TO TRY TO DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT, ESP FOR LAKE MI SITES (TVC,
MBL)...THOUGH STILL UNCLEAR HOW THIS IDEA WILL EVOLVE...AND HOW FAR
INLAND THEY WILL DRIFT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...FEF
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