616
FXUS63 KAPX 090440
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1140 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING SNOW/WINTRY MIX CHANCES TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES
NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
DEPART DOWNSTREAM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALL OF THIS IN ADVANCE OF
INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE -- LIKELY TO
BRING A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING GIVING WAY TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER/INTERIOR
SPOTS TO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SET
TO CROSS THROUGH ONTARIO LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM LOCALLY DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY LARGELY IN THE 20S IN THE AREA-WIDE WITH
SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE MICHGIAN SHORELINE OF FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
LATE MONDAY - TUESDAY: MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION ALLUDED TO ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ONTARIO
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY -- LIKELY PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS
EARLY AS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. BEST FORCING LIKELY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF TO ONE-THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO ONTARIO --
COINCIDING WITH THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER AS A WARM
NOSE ALOFT FOLDS INTO THE AREA. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE STRAITS INTO
THE EASTERN U.P. WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO TOWARD M-72/M-55.
HOWEVER, THOSE AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MOST LIKELY TO SEE
IMPACTS FROM A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN,
WITH AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE (AT THIS POINT, MOST
LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-32). LOTS OF REFINEMENT TO COME OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT WILL START TO MESSAGE THIS TIME FRAME
A LITTLE HARDER IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS/GRAPHICS.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT LIKELY IN SPOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT, PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA MID-LATE WEEK BRINGING A
DIMINISHING TREND TO WHAT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER. THE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WIDENS NEXT WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER RIDDLING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NATION'S MIDSECTION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK (WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY) IN ADVANCE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THAT ENERGY MANIFESTS NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH A QUIET AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEEKEND ON TAP LOCALLY -- TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTRY
WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CERTAINLY A TIME
FRAME WORTH MONITORING MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR THRU MONDAY MORNING. AN INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL START
TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
LOWER THRU THE DAY, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT CIU BY MID
AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH, SPOTTY MIXED WINTRY PRECIP DEVELOPS IN
THE EVENING, MOST LIKELY SN/PL AT APN AND -FZRA AT TVC. VFR WITH
NO PRECIP BEFORE 06Z AT MBL.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS GET A TOUCH BREEZY ON
MONDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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