778
FXUS63 KAPX 091742
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW (E UP) AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION (N
LOWER) IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS INTO MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
LITTLE SHAKE AND BAKE IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON MONDAY AS ONE SHORT WAVE
SLING SHOTS IN FRONT OF THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A RESULT THAT SKIM
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS A JET STREAK ALOFT
IMPINGES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
GENERALLY TIP OF THE MITT AND NORTHWARD. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MAIN WAVE, ALONG
WITH DIFFERENTIAL POS VORT ADVECTION. BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT WILL
BE ROUGHLY FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT AND NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, RESULTING IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AND STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION. SNOW, OR MOSTLY SNOW, IS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE
NORTH (STRAITS INTO E UP) AND A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE A QUICK BURST OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY.
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS ONTARIO.
CONSEQUENTLY, COLD ADVECTION IT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ANY LINGERING STEADIER SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT/INDUCED, GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
WINTRY IMPACTS:
SNOW WILL BE ONE OF TWO MAIN CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
FREEZING RAIN BEING THE OTHER. SNOW POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS WHERE
THE DEEPER LIFT RESIDES, WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT BUT ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
A QUICK 2-4/3-5" OF SNOW WITH RATIOS LIKELY CLOSE TO 10:1-11:1,
SLICKER THAN NORMAL, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. HREF PROBS SUGGEST A MEDIUM TO HIGH POTENTIAL (~50-80%)
FOR 3" OF SNOW ACROSS THE E UP, LOWER SOUTH OF THE STRAITS.
LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS FROM
THE TIP OF THE MITT OUT TOWARDS ALPENA, BUT COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES THERE, WHERE THE LOWER PROBS (10-40%) FOR 3" OF SNOW
RESIDE. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER, LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH WARM NOSE NOSING IN ALOFT. THUS, A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED. MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE A GLAZE FOR MOST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER, WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR CONCERNS. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH CONCEPTUALLY AT LEAST SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAKES SENSE. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT FOR THE E UP, WHICH HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC LIFT COUPLED WITH MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNALS FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH MAY VERY WELL NEED AN ADVISORY FOR WINTRY MIX AS
WELL, LARGELY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMS OF A GLAZE, BUT WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAVE THIS PORTION TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MID WEEK WITHIN A
MODESTLY UNSTABLE/COLD ENVIRONMENT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG CONCERN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS DO
COOL BACK INTO THE MID 20S FOR HIGHS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITHIN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S. ATTENTION
TURNS TO A QUICK MOVING ZONAL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SOME OF
THE ENS GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO THE INCREASING
UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES - SOUTHEAST
CANADA. OF COURSE, THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
AREAS OF WEAKNESS, ASSUMING ANY DEVELOPS, WILL BE ONE OF A FEW
FACTORS THAT ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN MERIDIONALLY LIFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DOWNWARD TOWARDS MVFR TO IFR FOR MORE
NORTHERN SITES, ESPECIALLY CIU WITH A SLOWER TREND TOWARDS MVFR
ACROSS MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PLN WITH TIME. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
CIU WITH A COUPLE INCHES EXPECTED AT PLN. DROPS TO IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT CIU TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
ISSUANCE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT WORTH MENTIONING... SOME
ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TERMINALS
ACCUMULATING TO A LIGHT GLAZE, MAINLY TVC AND APN. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST/WEST BEHIND A PASSING FRONT ~12Z TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC
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