482
FXUS63 KAPX 092339
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW (E UP) AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION (N
LOWER) EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO MIDWEEK.
- INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING NOW DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INCOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST -- AHEAD OF PARENT TROUGHING LAGGING
BEHIND ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. SFC LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING SUIT
INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOCALLY, WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH 120+ KT JET
STREAK ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZED LATER
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL WAVE.
BEST FORCING LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN UP AND ON INTO ONTARIO, RESULTING IN THIS
BEING THE AREA FAVORED FOR MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN DESIRED IN HOW WIDESPREAD
THAT BECOMES AND RESULTANT IMPACTS.
BULK OF STEADIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE EXITING TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW, MOST NOTABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN SPOTS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FORECAST DETAILS: INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
SCRAPING THE STRAITS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HI
RES TRENDS FAVOR THIS BATCH OF SNOW EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING.
SECONDARY, MORE IMPRESSIVE, SHOT OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- AGAIN FALLING
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST ACROSS THE STRAITS INTO EASTERN UPPER. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-6" ACROSS THE EASTERN UP,
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
ANY BETTER FGEN BANDING THAT'S ABLE TO MATERIALIZE PROVIDING AN
UPTICK IN SNOWFALL RATES. GENERALLY LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-2"
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM PELLSTON TO NORTH OF ALPENA. SLRS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 10-12:1, CERTAINLY ON THE WETTER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO JUST HOW WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP BECOMES,
WHAT FORM IS FALLS IN, AND OF COURSE RELATED IMPACTS. LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT THAT INITIAL WING OF SNOW SCRAPING PARTS OF THE TIP OF THE
MITT AND FAR NORTHEAST LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST (VERY SIMILAR TO THE E. UP IN THAT RESPECT). BY LATE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, CONCEPTUALLY SPEAKING, LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM, DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP
FORCING. A WARM NOSE POKING IN ALOFT INTRODUCES POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX WITH LATEST SUITE OF HI RES TRENDS FAVORING A LACK OF
PRECIP ALTOGETHER (MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE). NOT SURE I CAN
COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THAT SCENARIO GIVEN SIMPLE PATTERN
RECOGNITION. SUPPOSE PRECIP OVER THE BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER
COULD WIND UP MORE DRIZZLY GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFTEN
LACKING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN. THAT SAID, FOR WHAT
PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE OVER NORTHERN LOWER, FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FAVORED WITH AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE EXPECTED ON
UNTREATED ROADS/SURFACES, AND RESULTANT SLICK ROADS/HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. TOUGH CALL ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WITH ABNORMALLY
HIGH BUST POTENTIAL SIMPLY GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WILL FAVOR THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
AND GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY ACROSS A CHUNK OF COUNTIES SOUTH
OF THE BRIDGE (AGAIN PRIMARILY FOR ICING POTENTIAL FROM FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE), BUT KNOWING FULL WELL THAT IT'S IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT FOLKS COULD WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO VERY
LITTLE ISSUES AT ALL.
BACK TO SOMETHING OF MORE CONFIDENCE, COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL SNOW
BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER. ACCUMULATION LOOKS
PRETTY MINOR (GENERALLY 1" OR LESS THRU TUESDAY NIGHT), BUT
INCREASINGLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH MAY RESULT IN
A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW AND LEAD TO POCKETS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
HIGH TEMPS LATE TUESDAY MORNING/MIDDAY BEFORE CAA REALLY KICKS IN
PROGGED NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, PERHAPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT ISOLATED-SCATTERED LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS; HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. WEAK WAVE UPSTREAM ON
THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES -- FAVORED FOR AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI/NORTHERN IL AND FAR SOUTHWEST MI. THUS, GENERALLY TRANQUIL WX
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN MI WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY GIVING
WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY - SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
MAIN LONGER RANGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTS LEE OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION. MYRIAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
WITH THIS WAVE -- MAJORITY OF ENS GUIDANCE KEEPS POTENTIAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO RISING UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION THAT THIS
WAVE FINDS WEAKNESS IN THOSE HEIGHTS AND AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MESSY WINTRY WEATHER --
CERTAINLY A TIME FRAME WORTH MONITORING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW INTO CIU HAS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED, THOUGH
ANOTHER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THERE AND PLN OVERNIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THESE SITES. FURTHER SOUTH, PRECIP IS
LESS CERTAIN FOR APN/TVC, BUT IF IT HAPPENS, A WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING -FZRA IS EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AT MBL. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, EXCEPT
IFR FOR CIU.
SSE WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE
WNW TUE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>030-033>036-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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