234
FXUS63 KAPX 100845
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW WINDS DOWN THIS MORNING ACROSS E UP.
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME.
- FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY?
- AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
TROUGH/ENERGY JUST UPSTREAM OF NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO AID THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT AND EASTERN UPPER. COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND
DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE THE CULPRIT,
WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUS, THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL. TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER
WILL STILL SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS/BRIEF WINTRY MIX DURING THIS
TIME, WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW FROM ~WHITEFISH
AND PARADISE UP TOWARDS SAULT STE MARIE.
MAIN ENERGY/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS, WITH COLD
ADVECTION MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNIQUE SCENARIO POTENTIALLY UNFOLDS, WITH A CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT ALSO A PERIOD WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN REGARDS TO THE SNOW
POTENTIAL, MARGINALLY DEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER END OF THE
SPECTRUM, BUT ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MAIN VORT MAX FINALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN ITS
COLD POOL/LIFT ALOFT. WE'LL SEE IF THAT MATERIALIZES OR EVEN
REMAINS OVER LAND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS
NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
WINTRY IMPACTS:
NOT A TON OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING AND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY. PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN UPPER, BUT THE MAIN POINT WILL BE THE SLICK AND
SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE. IN REGARDS TO ICING, STILL
QUESTIONABLE ON THE SPATIAL EXTENT (WHICH WOULD LARGELY BE OVER
BY THE MORNING HOURS, AT LEAST IN THE FREEZING RAIN PORTION),
BUT ALL IT TAKES IS A GLAZE/NON ZERO ICING FOR CONCERNS.
UPON SECOND GLANCE, THERE IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE NUANCE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY, SEEMINGLY. THERE MAY BE BOTH A BRIEF WINDOW
DURING THE MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS DEEP ENOUGH
(~1KM) WHILE THE SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. BUT ALSO, AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SATURATION
DEEPENS TO AROUND 1 KM/-10C ONCE MORE WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING. THUS, THERE MAY BE A SCENARIO FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AFTER THE COLD ADVECTION. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE VIA PROGGED
SOUNDINGS MIGHT BE FOR THE TYPICAL FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOW
BELTS. THIS IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MY PART
TO BE COMPLETELY TRANSPARENT, WITH PLENTY OF CONDITIONS THAT MAY
OR MAY NOT BE MET (WILL THE DEPTH AND OVERALL SATURATION WITHIN
THE 0-1 KM LAYER BE SUFFICIENT, HOW QUICKLY DOES THE LAYER COOL
AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ARE SFC TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS, ETC). GIVEN THIS, WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY LET THE NORTHERN LOWER MI WWYS EXPIRE AT 15Z, AND EXTEND
THE E UP ZONES THROUGH 18Z. THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOO
LOOKED TO SUPPORT A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE, PERHAPS INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR THOSE
TRAVELING THIS TUESDAY MORNING, AND REALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, BE A LITTLE MORE COGNIZANT IF POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST
SNOW BELTS. QUICK LOOK AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWS INVERSION
HEIGHTS ~1KM/850 MB EXTENDING UP WITHIN ONLY A PORTION OF THE
DGZ (VIA SOME MODEL GUIDANCE). THUS, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST BEING ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. ONE OTHER NOTE, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ~25 TO 35 MPH WILL
MEAN BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. SPATIAL
COVERAGE WANES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH GENERALLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MOST THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND A
WEST TO EAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. ENS GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR MSLP < 1005 MB SHOW A BIMODAL
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RELATIVE MAXES/HIGHER PROBS (AT LEAST
THE 12-18Z GUIDANCE DID). JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE ENS GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTING A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE US AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. THUS, THERE IS A LEAST A SOMEWHAT FAVORED
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. GEPS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, DUE TO THE STRONGER NORTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH
INTERACT WITH THIS SOUTHERN PIECE. ALL THIS TO SAY, LEANING
TOWARDS THE MORE SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE ATMOSPHERIC PIECES TO BE SAMPLED WHICH
COULD ALTER THE EXACT SFC REFLECTION.
I KNOW THIS IS IN FANTASY LAND SO TO SPEAK, BUT TAKING A PEAK AT THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWS SOME HELLACIOUS ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE
WINDY/DUSTY SEASON, AKA SPRING, DOWN IN SOUTHWEST NM AND FAR WEST
TX? NOT ENTIRELY SURE ABOUT THAT (ALTHOUGH PNA TURNS NEGATIVE WITHIN
ALL GUIDANCE) AND NOT THAT DESERT SOUTHWEST WEATHER IS ANY
INDICATION OF UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE
IMAGINATION, BUT PERHAPS, IF YOU SQUINT, THERE IS A SLIGHT GLIMMER
OF HOPE AFTER ALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WINTRY PRECIP RETURNING TO NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW AT CIU/PLN, WITH IFR VSBYS
AT TIMES AT CIU. APN IS MOST LIKELY PICKING UP PL AT THE
MOMENT (ASOS IS REPORTING UP WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH VSBY),
PL/SN/FZRA ARE ALL POSSIBLE THERE FOR A FEW HOURS. TVC COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SPOTTY -FZRA OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AT
MBL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
EXCEPT IFR AT TIMES FOR CIU.
SSE WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE
WNW TUE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>030-033>036-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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