799
FXUS63 KAPX 102337
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
637 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
SHORT TERM PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT NOW OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. MOST ORGANIZED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALSO NOW OFF TO OUR EAST, WITH INITIAL STAGES
OF WEAK POST-COLD FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPING KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OFF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
OTHERWISE, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH CURRENT READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENT PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BRIEF NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR TO BLEED INTO OUR
REGION.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ADDRESSING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS:
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON THE HEELS OF
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS AIRMASS LACKS ANY
POLAR CONNECTION, ESSENTIALLY ONLY DROPPING OUR TEMPERATURES TO MORE
NORMAL-LIKE VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. EXPECT SOME RESPONSE
OFF THE STILL ICE FREE PORTIONS OF THE BIG WATERS, ALTHOUGH A
COMBINATION OF AN ONLY MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL GRADIENT AND A
VERY LIMITED SURFACE ROOTED CONVECTIVE LAYER SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
THROTTLE BACK ON BOTH LAKE-INDUCED PRECIPITATION ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY. SIMPLE BREADTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OPEN WATER FETCH AND A
BIT COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS MOST "ORGANIZED" SNOWS
ROTATING OFF THAT LAKE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY
PUNTING THE BETTER SNOWS WEST INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUPPOSE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
FAMED CHIPPEWA SNOW BELTS BEFORE WESTWARD PUNT OCCURS. BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE, WITH EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER NEAR AND NORTH OF BEAVER ISLAND FURTHER HINDERING AN EVEN
MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. STILL EXPECTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. AS MENTIONED, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS, AT TIMES UP AND OVER 30 MPH, WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL,
WITH SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILES PERHAPS FALLING SHORT OF ICE
ACTIVATION TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. STILL RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PARTIALLY OFFSETS THE
NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
BIGGEST STORY FOR THE EXTENDED IS A COMPLETE RETREAT OF ANY ARCTIC
AIR, WITH A MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME RESULTING IN MUCH MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIR
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CONUS. CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT A
MATURE SPIT FLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE
ROBBING SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE LOOKS TO SET UP
AN EARLY TASTE OF SPRING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DETAILS:
AS FOR ANY ACTIVE WEATHER...LITTLE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAY SEE A FEW WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE WAVES PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST
KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DPROG'S/DT'S OF
NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF THE MID RANGE ENSEMBLE SUITE SHOWS A MOISTURE
RICH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE NOW REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND. PERHAPS WE TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS WAVES BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF WESTERN TROUGHING. WE
SHALL SEE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MILD AFTER STILL NEAR-
NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY, WITH THERMAL PROGS SUPPORTING HIGHS
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 30S...WITH EVEN SOME AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKING A RUN AT THE LOWER 40S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WNW WINDS BECOME NW 10-15KTS THIS
EVENING, AND THEN NW/NNW AROUND 15Z...SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 15-20KTS
AFTER 6Z THRU 18Z...GUSTING 25-30KTS AT TIMES...THOUGH POSSIBLE
THESE GUSTS COULD STAY ALOFT AS WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500-2000FT.
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR VISBYS
(POSSIBLY CIGS?) WITH LIGHT SN AND/OR FZDZ/DZ...THINK BEST SHOT OF
FZDZ/DZ WILL BE INTERIOR NORTHERN MI (I.E., GLR) BUT FALLING TEMPS
COULD TRANSITION ANY LINGERING DZ TO FZDZ OVERNIGHT. (HAVE THIS
CODED AS BR ATTM IN TAFS.) THINK THERE COULD BE A BETTER UPTICK IN
SNOW/LOWER CIGS AROUND 10-15Z BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE NNW...THEN
THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/VFR THRU AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...FEF
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