681
FXUS63 KAPX 111744
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1244 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING, GENERALLY LIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS SUIT, WITH WEAK
SFC/LAKE TROUGHING SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, MARGINALLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED, ENOUGH
FOR A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS. MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL.
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT
BY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF NORTHERN MI ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH PLENTY OF NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES, BUT
THE OVERALL SPLIT FLOW AND GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
ANY SOUTHERN STREAM PIECES WELL TO THE SOUTH. QUICK MOVING
MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW ITS
PROWESS WITH DEEP WEST COAST TROUGHING. HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND
THUS MILD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE (TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK). LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLY IMPACTFUL TODAY, WITH LOCALLY +/- ONE INCH
THROUGH TONIGHT (PERHAPS ~TWO INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAC). SUPPOSE A MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWER COMBINED WITH THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF, LOCALIZED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. IN REGARDS TO POPS, COULD SEE NORTHEAST
LOWER NEEDING A LITTLE UPTICK IN POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS DUE TO SFC/LAKE TROUGHING AS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES.
INCREASING HEIGHTS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WEST COAST TROUGHING WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY STARTING FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. DESI NBM PROBS
FOR >32F HIGH TEMPS ARE HIGH (70-100%) FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THIS IDEA. IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A MINOR CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION HERE AND THERE. PERHAPS THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CHANCE WAITS UNTIL ~MID WEEK OR SO. OVERALL, A PRETTY QUIET
PERIOD FORTHCOMING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SHALLOW LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION. DON'T
ANTICIPATE THIS CHANGING INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
DROP TO IFR VISIBILITIES (PROBABLY 2-3 MILES) IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EVENTUALLY SC EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT A
FEW TERMINAL LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY LIKELY AT
KCIU BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN AT KPLN/KAPN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT CLOUDS WILL THIN AT KTVC/KMBL
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP THEM
PREVAILING MVFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JPB
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