044
FXUS63 KAPX 111945
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING TONIGHT
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WEAK SURFACE/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS PARENT UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, COMBINED
WITH RATHER ANEMIC MOISTURE PROFILES, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND
MOISTURE DIMINISHES FURTHER. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
AN INCH OR LESS. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL BENIGN CONDITIONS
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE, ANY LARGE STORM SYSTEMS WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LACKING ANY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH OF ANYTHING ACROSS OUR AREA. SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE FREEZING DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK (AND MUCH TOO EARLY) START TO
MAPLE SYRUP SEASON IN SOME AREAS. INITIALLY RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP SNOW MELT TO A STEADY PACE, WITH
INDICATIONS OF A BIGGER PUSH OF HIGHER DEWPOINT/WARMER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THAT MAY
ACCELERATE THE MELTING. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GIVEN THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
THE COMING DAYS.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL ON AREA RIVERS AS
WE SEE STEADY MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK OVER THE COMING WEEK. OVERALL,
THIS UPCOMING PATTERN MAY GREATLY DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK IN SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE (AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SHALLOW LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION. DON'T
ANTICIPATE THIS CHANGING INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
DROP TO IFR VISIBILITIES (PROBABLY 2-3 MILES) IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EVENTUALLY SC EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT A
FEW TERMINAL LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY LIKELY AT
KCIU BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN AT KPLN/KAPN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT CLOUDS WILL THIN AT KTVC/KMBL
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP THEM
PREVAILING MVFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JPB
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