950
FXUS63 KAPX 120446
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1146 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING TONIGHT
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WEAK SURFACE/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS PARENT UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, COMBINED
WITH RATHER ANEMIC MOISTURE PROFILES, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND
MOISTURE DIMINISHES FURTHER. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
AN INCH OR LESS. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL BENIGN CONDITIONS
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE, ANY LARGE STORM SYSTEMS WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LACKING ANY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH OF ANYTHING ACROSS OUR AREA. SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE FREEZING DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK (AND MUCH TOO EARLY) START TO
MAPLE SYRUP SEASON IN SOME AREAS. INITIALLY RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP SNOW MELT TO A STEADY PACE, WITH
INDICATIONS OF A BIGGER PUSH OF HIGHER DEWPOINT/WARMER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THAT MAY
ACCELERATE THE MELTING. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GIVEN THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
THE COMING DAYS.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL ON AREA RIVERS AS
WE SEE STEADY MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK OVER THE COMING WEEK. OVERALL,
THIS UPCOMING PATTERN MAY GREATLY DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK IN SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE (AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS TO SLIP INTO TVC AROUND 6Z, COULD BE IFR
VISBYS AT TIMES TILL IT EXITS. OTHERWISE, SHSN SHOULD LARGELY SHIFT
BACK TOWARD TVC/MBL INTO DAYBREAK (COULD HANG ON MORE THAN EXPECTED
AT APN, THOUGH). STILL NON-ZERO CHANCE -FZDZ COULD MIX IN, BUT THINK
SN WILL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCT MVFR/VFR CIGS THRU MUCH OF
THURSDAY...BKN MVFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 15-21Z WITH LIGHT SN/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE...WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS AFTER 0Z. NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING
FLURRIES BACK JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD, ESP FOR CIU. NW WINDS TURN
MORE NNW THRU DAYBREAK AND REMAIN 5-10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VRB TO W/SW TOWARD 21-0Z AND BEYOND. WATCHING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER 0Z FRI.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JPB/FEF
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